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Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney: Fantasy football draft profile for 2023 NFL season

We break down the outlook for K.C. WR Kadarius Toney heading into the 2023 NFL season.

Syndication: Palm Beach Post Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Expectations for wide receiver Kadarius Toney have been high since the New York Giants selected the Florida product in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Unfortunately, injuries have been the story of Toney’s pro career, and the Giants shipped him to the Kansas City Chiefs in the middle of the 2022 season. Now, the speedy pass-catcher has the chance to be a stand-out player in the NFL’s best offense, as long as he can stay on the field.

2023 Fantasy Football: Kadarius Toney Profile

Recap of 2022 season

Toney’s arrival in Kansas City sent more than a few fantasy football managers to the waiver wire hoping to nab him for a late-season run. He managed to suit up for seven games with the Chiefs, but his production was limited to 171 yards and two touchdowns on a mere 14 catches.

Updated Chiefs outlook

As sure as the sun rises, the Chiefs' offense is going to put up an ungodly amount of points again this season. There’s been a lot of spring chatter about Toney being able to step into the No. 1 receiver role there. While tight end Travis Kelce is likely to lead the team again in the major receiving categories, Toney’s competition for targets among the receiving group is mostly limited to Skyy Moore, Marquez-Valdes Scantling and rookie Rashee Rice. In fact, Rice might be the biggest threat to Toney’s snap count down the stretch.

Best case scenario

With a full offseason to learn the Chiefs' offense, Toney could actually live up to the hype he’s getting this spring. He certainly has the playmaking ability to thrive in Kansas City, IF he can stay on the field. The kind of numbers he could produce with Patrick Mahomes are tantalizing.

Worst case scenario

More of what we’ve already seen, which is a talented receiver unable to stay on the field long enough to matter. Injuries are already becoming a factor during training camp and we know head coach Andy Reid is going to be liberal with his receiving rotations. There’s also a chance Toney doesn’t gain consistency and rotates at WR with MVS, Moore and Rice while Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon are also vulture targets in the passing game at RB.

Prediction

Toney is a Rorschach test for fantasy football managers. Some will make him a WR3 based on his potential alone. I’m on the more dubious side of things, and I wouldn’t count on him for more than a couple of big games per season — especially with Toney dealing with a knee injury that could sideline him for the beginning of the season.