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Jaguars WR Christian Kirk: Fantasy football draft profile for 2023 NFL season

We break down the outlook for Jacksonville wideout Christian Kirk heading into the 2023 NFL season.

Syndication: Florida Times-Union Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

Christian Kirk is heading into his second season with the Jacksonville Jaguars. He is coming off a career year and will be playing in his sixth season. The Jaguars won the AFC South in 2022 for the first time since 2017. They played in a crazy Wild Card game against the Los Angeles Chargers, coming back from a 27-0 deficit to advance to the divisional round.

2023 Fantasy Football: Christian Kirk Profile

Recap of 2022 season

Kirk had a career year in 2022. He played in all 17 games, bringing in 84 of his 133 targets for 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns. Each of these statistical categories was a career-high for him. Kirk was given the chance to be the WR1 in the Jacksonville offense and didn’t waste the opportunity. He was able to get on the same page early with quarterback Trevor Lawrence and ended up putting forth a strong fantasy season, finishing as the overall WR11 in half-PPR scoring.

Updated Jaguars outlook

Jacksonville projects to be the top contender for the AFC South. They retain their big names from a season ago, and Kirk should once again lead the receiving corps. The Jaguars got better as they traded for WR Calvin Ridley, who was reinstated after being suspended for a year due to gambling while away from his former team, the Atlanta Falcons.

Best case scenario

A return-to-form Ridley is a bigger receiving threat to Kirk than Zay Jones. Still, Kirk should lead the team in targets again. Other than teams having a year of tape on him playing with Lawrence, there isn’t much to suggest that a healthy Kirk won’t be able to replicate last year’s production. His best-case scenario is another year finishing as fringe WR1, high-end WR2.

Worst case scenario

The worst-case scenario is that the return of Evan Engram and Ridley takes significant targets away from Kirk. If he were to fall below 100 targets, there is a good chance that this would lower him under 1,000 receiving yards. Throw in a touchdown regression from his career-high of eight in 2022, and it isn’t crazy to think he could fall in the range of WR28-32 by the end of the season.

Prediction

Kirk takes a slight step back with the presence of Ridley, but it shouldn’t be anything major. We will see if he can find the end zone as much as he did a year ago, but Kirk should finish as the overall WR15-18 this year in half-PPR scoring formats.