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Aaron Rodgers: Fantasy football draft profile for 2023 NFL season

We break down the outlook for Aaron Rodgers heading into the 2023 NFL season.

NFL: New York Jets-Aaron Rodgers Press Conference Tom Horak-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Jets’ addition of Aaron Rodgers is the story of the offseason, but will it have a big impact on his fantasy football production? He’ll be one of the most interesting storylines throughout the 2023 season, and here’s a look at what to expect out of him from a fantasy perspective.

2022 season statistics & fantasy finish

With the Green Bay Packers last season, Rodgers started all 17 games and completed 64.6% of passes for 3,695 yards with 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. His statistics took a fairly significant dip coming off back-to-back MVP seasons. The Packers had a number of young pass catchers playing huge roles in the offense, and Rodgers’ lingering thumb injury may have had an impact.

Jets offseason moves

New York signed Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb this offseason, so Rodgers will have a couple of his top targets with the Packers alongside him. The Jets also landed former Kansas City Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman. New York spent its first offensive draft pick on former Wisconsin Badgers center Joe Tippmann in the second round and also selected former Pitt Panthers running back Israel Abanikanda in Round 5.

2023 best-case scenario

The best-case scenario would be Rodgers doing what he does best when the NFL starts counting him out. It’s hard to find an athlete with a bigger chip on his shoulder, and he could return to an MVP level with New York. We may never know how much last year’s thumb injury hindered his performance, but he didn’t look like himself. He’s paired with WR Garrett Wilson, who went over the 1,000-yard receiving mark as a rookie with a rotating cast of quarterbacks throwing him the ball.

2023 worst-case scenario

The worst-case scenario would be that 2022 was no fluke, and Rodgers has officially hit a wall at this stage of his career. It’s possible Wilson goes through a sophomore slump and if nobody else can step as far as pass catchers are concerned, the Jets could lean more on the run game than we originally thought, leaving fantasy managers disappointed.

2023 prediction

Rodgers will fall somewhere in the middle of the consecutive MVP seasons and what we saw from him in 2022. As much as the thumb injury may have had an impact on his 2022 performance, the loss of Davante Adams was an even bigger issue. He’s not Davante Adams, but Wilson could develop into an NFL star. If he puts together a breakout season in Year 2, Rodgers is worthy of being a regular starter in fantasy lineups.