Picks, predictions for Astros vs. Orioles on Thursday, August 10

After taking the first two games of this series from the Baltimore Orioles (70-44), the streaking Houston Astros (66-49) look to stake their claim as AL favorites by finishing off a sweep on Thrusday afternoon. First pitch of the series finale from Camden Yards is set for 12:35 p.m. ET. Young righty Hunter Brown (8-7, 4.07 ERA) will get the ball for Houston, while the O’s counter with Dean Kremer (10-4, 4.61).

The Astros have now won five of seven since dealing for Justin Verlander at the trade deadline, trailing the Texas Rangers in the AL West by just two games entering play on Thursday. They’ll head back home to finish off their week with three-game set against the Los Angeles Angels. Baltimore, meanwhile, are now 0-2 since word got out that the team had outrageously suspended play-by-play man Kevin Brown since late last month. They remain three games up in the loss column on the Rays in the AL East and will kick off a West Coast swing with a three-game set against the Mariners this weekend.

Houston enters as -125 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Orioles at +105. The run total is set at 9.5.

Astros-Orioles picks: Thursday, August 10

Injury report

Astros

Out: OF Michael Brantley (right shoulder surgery)

Orioles

Day-to-day: INF Ramon Urias (left heel soreness)
Out: OF Cedric Mullins (right adductor groin strain), OF Aaron Hicks (left hamstring strain)

Starting pitchers

Hunter Brown vs. Dean Kremer

Brown was maddeningly inconsistent over the first few months of 2023, but he’s settled into a groove recently, with three consecutive starts of six innings pitched and exactly two earned runs allowed. The most recent of those came in a win over the Yankees in the Bronx in which he allowed five hits and two walks while striking out four. The 24-year-old boasts two very good breaking balls in his curve and slider, and all he needs is to be able to consistently keep his fastball up in the zone and out of trouble to really take off.

Kremer struggled through June, but he’s since become one of the more trusted arms in Baltimore’s (admittedly iffy) rotation. The righty has pitched to a 3.44 ERA over his last six starts, three of which involved allowing just a singled earned run. It’s not the flashiest arsenal — he ranks well below-average in K and whiff rate — and his command still isn’t very refined, but he uses a cutter, sinker and changeup to miss enough barrels to get outs in play (especially in spacious Camden Yards) and get through five or six frames.

Over/Under pick

The previous two totals in this series have been 13 and 10, but those numbers are a little misleading: The Astros have scored a combined 10 runs in the eighth and ninth innings against a Baltimore bullpen that’s usually pretty sturdy. Both of these starters are throwing the ball pretty well right now, and Camden Yards is a below-average run-scoring environment with its new left-field dimensions. In a day game ahead of travel for both of these teams — meaning we might see slightly weaker lineups than usual — I’m backing the under with a pretty high number.

Pick: Under 9.5

Moneyline pick

Brown has much, much more upside on the mound than Kremer if he’s got his whole arsenal working, and in a game where both lineups look to be about even, that tips the scales for me toward Houston’s favor.

Pick: Astros