Picks, predictions for Twins vs. Tigers on Thursday, August 10

After an embarrassing loss on Wednesday night, the maddeningly inconsistent Minnesota Twins (60-56) look to salvage a split of their four-game set against the Detroit Tigers (51-63) on Thursday afternoon. First pitch of the series finale is set for 1:10 p.m. ET from Comerica Park. Kenta Maeda (3-6, 4.22 ERA) will look to get the Twins back on track, while Detroit counters with rookie Reese Olson (1-5, 4.94).

The Twins have been all but handed the AL Central, but they remain unable to get out of their own way long enough to look like actual contenders once October rolls around. It seemed like Minnesota had turned a corner with five wins in their last six, only to drop two in a row to a Tigers team playing out the string. They’ll head east to wrap up their road trip against the Phillies this weekend.

Detroit, meanwhile, remains surprisingly frisky as they play out the string of another rebuilding season. The Tigers are 5-5 in their last 10 and are gaining on the fading Guardians for second place in the dismal AL Central. They’ll kick off a road trip this weekend against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.

Minnesota enters as -162 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Tigers at +136. The run total is set at 8.5.

Twins-Tigers picks: Thursday, August 10

Injury report

Twins

Day to day: INF Donovan Solano (knee)
Out: 3B Royce Lewis (oblique), 1B/OF Alex Kirilloff (shoulder), DH Byron Buxton (hamstring), SP Joe Ryan (groin), 1B/3B Jose Miranda (shoulder), RP Brock Stewart (elbow)

Tigers

Out: RP Will Vest (knee), RP Mason Englert (hip)

Starting pitchers

Kenta Maeda vs. Reese Olson

Maeda has been sensational since coming off the IL in late June, with a 2.47 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 43.2 innings over his last eight starts. He’s struck out at least seven batters four times in that span while allowing more than two earned runs just once, showcasing renewed fastball velocity and the sort of sharp slider and splitter that he rode to a second-place finish in AL Cy Young voting in 2020.

Olson got off to a promising start to his first MLB season, but he’s struggled of late, with at least four earned runs allowed in his last three outings. He most recently gave up four runs on five hits and three walks in a loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. The righty’s slider remains a real weapon, but it’s still waiting on something else to give it some help, as neither Olson’s fastball nor his changeup are doing enough right now.

Over/Under pick

The Tigers have shown some offensive punch of late, but with the way Maeda is throwing the ball right now — and given that this is a day game after a night game where both teams will be hitting the road, meaning relatively weaker lineups — I’m not expecting too much help toward this total from Detroit. That means we’re relying on Minnesota to do most of the work, and I simply don’t trust this offense to put up the kind of crooked number we’ll likely need.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

Maeda is simply rolling right now, and I expect him to keep the Tigers’ bats at bay and allow the Twins’ lineup to do just enough to get out of Detroit with a split of this four-game set.

Pick: Twins