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World Cup 2023 knockout round qualification scenarios for Group G

Here’s the knockout qualification scenarios in Group G at the 2023 women’s World Cup.

Sweden v Italy: Group G - FIFA Women’s World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023
Arianna Caruso of Italy controls the ball during the FIFA Women’s World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023 Group G match between Sweden and Italy at Wellington Regional Stadium on July 29, 2023 in Wellington, New Zealand.
Photo by Maja Hitij - FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images

There is still one more spot in the round of 16 on the line in Group G when the pod enters its final matchday at the 2023 women’s World Cup. Only Sweden have officially qualified for the knockout stage at this point.

Group G

Qualified: Sweden, South Africa
Eliminated: Argentina, Italy

Update: Sweden completed a sweep of Group G with a win over Argentina, while South Africa got a stoppage-time winner over Italy to make the round of 16.

Italy, South Africa and Argentina are all in contention for the second spot, and they are close on points. Here’s a look at the standings in Group G.

Sweden, 2-0-0, +6 GD, 6 points
Italy, 1-0-1, -4 GD, 3 points
Argentina, 0-1-1, -1 GD, 1 point
South Africa, 0-1-1, -1 GD, 1 point

With these standings in mind, here are the qualification scenarios in Group G.

Italy

Will advance with:

  • A win over South Africa
  • A draw with South Africa and an Argentina draw or loss to Sweden
  • A draw with South Africa and an Argentina win over Sweden (with winning tiebreakers)

Will be eliminated with:

  • A loss to South Africa
  • A draw with South Africa and an Argentina win over Sweden (with losing tiebreakers)

South Africa

Will advance with:

  • A win over Italy and an Argentina draw or loss to Sweden
  • A win over Italy and an Argentina win over Sweden (with winning tiebreakers)

Will be eliminated with:

  • A draw or loss to Italy
  • A win over Italy and an Argentina win over Sweden (with losing tiebreakers)

Argentina

Will advance with:

  • A win over Sweden and a South Africa draw with Italy (with winning tiebreakers)
  • A win over Sweden and a South Africa win over Italy (with winning tiebreakers)

Will be eliminated with:

  • A draw or loss to Sweden
  • A win over Sweden and an Italy win over South Africa
  • A win over Sweden an an Italy draw with South Africa (with losing tiebreakers)
  • A win over Sweden and a South Africa win over Italy (with losing tiebreakers)

As a reminder, here’s how the tiebreakers work in the 2023 FIFA women’s World Cup group stage:

  1. Goal differential
  2. Goals scored in the group stage
  3. Head-to-head result between tied teams
  4. Goal differential from the match between tied teams
  5. Most goals scored in matches between tied teams
  6. Fair Play points: Teams are deducted one Fair Play point for each yellow card, three points for a second yellow leading to a red, four points for a straight red card, and five points for a yellow and a straight red card.
  7. Drawing of lots

Sweden was -5000 at DraftKings Sportsbook to advance from the group ahead of the World Cup. Italy was a -350 favorite to be the second team out. Argentina came in at +300, while South Africa was priced at +550. Currently, Italy comes in at -500. South Africa is listed at +550 to advance while Argentina is +700.