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World Cup 2023 knockout round qualification scenarios for Group F

Here’s the knockout qualification scenarios in Group F at the 2023 women’s World Cup.

France v Brazil: Group F - FIFA Women’s World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023
Marta of Brazil during the FIFA Women’s World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023 Group F match between France and Brazil at Brisbane Stadium on July 29, 2023 in Brisbane, Australia.
Photo by Justin Setterfield/Getty Images

Group F at the 2023 women’s World Cup was considered to be among the toughest entering the competition, and it has lived up to that billing ahead of the final matchday. Three teams are still in contention for a spot in the knockout round, which sets up a thrilling final day in the group.

Group F

Qualified: France, Jamaica
Eliminated: Brazil, Panama

Update: France and Jamaica have advanced to the round of 16, with Brazil going home after failing to get a win in the final group game. France wins the group and Jamaica is the runner-up.

France and Jamaica have yet to lose in the competition, while Brazil is right behind both of them in the points column. Only Panama has nothing to play for in the final group game. Here’s a look at the detailed standings for Group F.

France, 1-1-0, +1 GD, 4 points
Jamaica, 1-1-0, +1 GD, 4 points
Brazil, 1-0-1, +3 GD, 3 points
Panama, 0-0-2, -5 GD, 0 points

With these standings in mind, here are the qualification scenarios for each team still alive.

France

Will advance with:

  • A win or draw against Panama
  • A loss to Panama and a Jamaica win over Brazil
  • A loss to Panama and a Jamaica draw with Brazil (with winning tiebreakers)

Will be eliminated with:

  • A loss to Panama and a Brazil win over Jamaica
  • A loss to Panama and a Brazil draw with Jamaica (with losing tiebreakers)

Jamaica

Will advance with:

  • A win or draw against Brazil
  • A loss to Brazil and a France loss to Panama (with winning tiebreakers)

Will be eliminated with:

  • A loss to Brazil and a France win or draw with Panama
  • A loss to Brazil and a France loss to Panama (with losing tiebreakers)

Brazil

Will advance with:

  • A win over Jamaica
  • A draw with Jamaica and a France loss to Panama (with winning tiebreakers)

Will be eliminated with:

  • A loss to Jamaica
  • A draw with Jamaica and a France win or draw with Panama
  • A draw with Jamaica and a France loss to Panama (with losing tiebreakers)

As a reminder, here’s how the tiebreakers work in the 2023 FIFA women’s World Cup group stage:

  1. Goal differential
  2. Goals scored in the group stage
  3. Head-to-head result between tied teams
  4. Goal differential from the match between tied teams
  5. Most goals scored in matches between tied teams
  6. Fair Play points: Teams are deducted one Fair Play point for each yellow card, three points for a second yellow leading to a red, four points for a straight red card, and five points for a yellow and a straight red card.
  7. Drawing of lots

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, France came in at -2500 to advance to the knockout round ahead of the competition. Brazil was priced at -1400, while Jamaica came in at +500. Panama was listed at +1600, but has already been eliminated. Currently, Brazil is -700 to advance while Jamaica comes in at +400. France is a -20000 favorite against Panama and is expected to advance.