Picks, predictions for Mets vs. Padres on Sunday, July 9

The New York Mets take on the San Diego Padres in the final game of a three-game series on Sunday, July 9. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET from Petco Park. Max Scherzer (8-2, 4.03 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets, and Joe Musgrove (7-2, 3.56 ERA) will pitch for the Padres.

The Padres are -130 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mets coming in at +110. The total is set at 8.

Mets-Padres picks: Sunday, July 9th

Injury report

Padres

Day-To-Day: INF Ha-Seong Kim (toe)
Out: RHP Steven Wilson (pectoral), OF Preston Tucker (foot), RHP Michael Wacha (shoulder), RHP Drew Carlton (elbow)

Starting pitchers

Max Scherzer vs. Joe Musgrove

Musgrove has been a very reliable tool for the Padres over the past several weeks. In his last seven starts, he put in six or more innings on the mound in six of them, and allowed more than two earned runs in just a single start. His latest outing was against the Angels — he recorded 11 strikeouts in seven innings and conceded just a single earned run.

Scherzer’s strikeout numbers remain up — he dispatched nine batters in his latest start, grabbing the win — but he’s had a few more fluke games than usual this season. The Braves and the Yankees both shook him up in June, but he seems to be balanced back on his feet. He was decent against the D-Backs in his latest, letting up four earned runs in six frames.

Over/Under pick

The totals of the first two games were 12 and 4, and I’m leaning more with the latter. Scherzer and Musgrove are both fantastic on the mound, even with Scherzer’s ups and downs lately. Let’s stick with a defense-heavy matchup here.

Pick: Under 8

Moneyline pick

The Mets took the first game of the series, 7-5, and the Padres won the second, 3-1. We have a solid pitching matchup on our hands here, but despite Scherzer having a bigger claim to fame, Musgrove has been far more consistent as of late. Scherzer has allowed a home run in each of his last six starts, and allowed three in his latest. The Padres rank 11th in homers this season and should be able to send them out of the park and win the home series.

Pick: Padres -130