Picks, predictions for Orioles vs. Twins on Saturday, July 8

The Baltimore Orioles picked up an extra-innings win over the Twins on Friday highlighted by Cedric Mullins’ terrific home run robbery of Byron Buxton. They’ll look to earn a series win tonight when they send Tyler Wells (6-4, 3.19 ERA) to the mound, while the Twins will counter with Sonny Gray (4-2, 2.50 ERA). First pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET.

The Twins are -105 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Orioles are +105 underdogs. The total is set at 8.5.

Orioles-Twins picks: Saturday, July 8th

Injury report

Orioles

Day to day: OF Aaron Hicks (left Achilles soreness), OF Austin Hays (left hip contusion)
Out: 1B Ryan Mountcastle (vertigo), RP Cionel Perez (left forearm soreness), RP Keegan Aiken (lower back discomfort), RP Austin Voth (right elbow discomfort)

Twins

Out: RP Brock Stewart (right elbow soreness), INF Jorge Polanco (left hamstring strain), RP Caleb Thielbar (right oblique strain), 3B Royce Lewis (strained left oblique)

Starting pitchers

Tyler Wells vs. Sonny Gray

Wells enters tonight’s start with the best WHIP (0.902) in all of baseball, and is coming off a quality start where he allowed two runs in six innings against the Yankees. While he’s given up a home run in each of his five starts, he’s gone at least five innings in six of his seven starts, and is 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in four career appearances against the Twins.

After having a tough June (3.95 ERA), Gray turned things around his last time out by twirling six shutout innings against these very same Orioles. The Twins’ only All-Star, Gray has the third-best ERA in baseball, and ranks in the 69th percentile in expected slugging and the 67th percentile in barrel rate.

Over/Under pick

With such a strong pitching matchup on the mound, I’m taking the under. Gray baffled this lineup a week ago, and Wells has only allowed more than two earned runs in one of his last seven starts. Both guys are near-locks to go six innings and allow less than two runs before turning the game over to their stellar bullpen. Runs will be at a premium.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

I’m banking on the Orioles to make it two in a row. They’re riding a three-game winning streak, and only allowed 10 runs in their series loss to the Twins last week (eight of which came in one game). They’ll avenge that series loss today.

Pick: Orioles