World Cup 2023 knockout round qualification scenarios for Group B

The 2023 FIFA 2women’s World Cup is inching closer toward the end of the group stage, and little by little we’re finding out who will advance to the round of 16. With two matches in the books, let’s take a look at qualifying scenarios in Group B.

Group B

Qualified: Australia, Nigeria
Eliminated: Ireland, Canada

Update: Australia got the big victory over Canada to go to the top of the group. Nigeria got a scoreless draw with Ireland, sending Canada home.

In a surprising turn, the lowest-ranked country in the group is leading the pack as No. 40 Nigeria sits on top of the table after two matches. They pulled off a huge upset with a 3-2 win over Australia after drawing 0-0 with Canada in the opener. The Super Falcons are tied on points with the Canadians, but own the goals scored tiebreaker which puts them in the top slot.

Ireland have already been eliminated from qualification after losing their first two matches, putting a top-two finish out of reach for the Girls in Green.

While nobody has officially clinched their spot in the knockout rounds, all four teams will be in action on Monday, July 31 at 6 a.m. ET with Canada vs. Australia and Ireland vs. Nigeria. Here’s a look at each team’s path to qualification and elimination.

Nigeria

Will advance with:

• A win or draw against Ireland
• A loss to Ireland and a Canada win over Australia
• A loss to Ireland and an Australia win over Canada (with tiebreakers)

Will be eliminated with:

• A loss to Ireland and a Canada-Australia draw (with tiebreakers)

Canada

Will advance with:

• A win or draw against Australia
• A loss to Australia and a Nigeria loss to Ireland (with tiebreakers)

Will be eliminated with:

• A loss to Australia and a Nigeria win or draw against Ireland

Australia

Will advance with:

• A win over Canada
• A draw with Canada and a Nigeria loss to Ireland (with tiebreakers)

Will be eliminated with:

• A loss to Canada
• A draw with Canada and a Nigeria win or draw against Ireland

As a reminder, here’s how the tiebreakers work in the 2023 FIFA women’s World Cup group stage:

1. Goal differential
2. Goals scored in the group stage
3. Head-to-head result between tied teams
4. Goal differential from the match between tied teams
5. Most goals scored in matches between tied teams
6. Fair Play points: Teams are deducted one Fair Play point for each yellow card, three points for a second yellow leading to a red, four points for a straight red card, and five points for a yellow and a straight red card.
7. Drawing of lots

Australia was -1100 to advance from Group B ahead of the tournament according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Canada was priced at -500 while Nigeria was +550. Ireland was listed at +350 but has already been eliminated from contention. Ahead of the final matchday, Nigeria is -1400 to advance while Canada is -175 and Australia is -110.