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Picks, predictions for Braves vs. Red Sox on Tuesday, July 25

Henry Palattella shares their top picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Braves-Red Sox on Tuesday, July 25.

Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Atlanta Braves up to bat against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on July 23, 2023 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images

The league-leading Atlanta Braves (63-34) roll into Fenway Park to kick off a big interleague set against the Boston Red Sox (52-47) on Tuesday night. First pitch of the series opener is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Charlie Morton (10-7, 3.36 ERA) will get the ball for the visitors, while reliever John Schreiber (1-0, 2.12) is set to serve as the opener for Boston in his return from the injured list.

Atlanta enters as -145 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Red Sox at +125. The run total is set at 10.5.

Braves-Red Sox picks: Tuesday, July 25

Injury report

Braves

Out: RP A.J. Minter (shoulder), OF Sam Hilliard (heel), RP Jesse Chavez (shin), SP Max Fried (forearm), RP Dylan Lee (shoulder), SP Kolby Allard (shoulder), RP Nick Anderson (shoulder), SP Kyle Wright (shoulder)

Red Sox

Out: C Reese McGuire (oblique), SP/RP Corey Kluber (shoulder), SP Garrett Whitlock (elbow), SP Tanner Houck (facial fracture), RP Kaleb Ort (elbow), SP Chris Sale (shoulder), SS Trevor Story (elbow)

Starting pitchers

Charlie Morton vs. John Schreiber

Morton stumbled a bit in his last time out, allowing four runs on six hits and three walks over 5.2 innings in a loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks last week. The righty had been on a roll prior to that, with just one run allowed in 19 innings of work across his previous three starts. At age 39, Morton shows no signs of slowing down, and while his fastball is a bit more hittable than it’s been in the past, his curveball (.172 average against, 39.7% whiff rate) remains as nasty as ever.

Schreiber’s been out for nearly two months with a shoulder strain, but one of the league’s best setup men will make his return to Boston’s bullpen in an unfamiliar role: opener. Tuesday will mark the first start of Schreiber’s five-year MLB career, as the righty has pitched more than one inning just once all season. He’ll likely be followed by Nick Pivetta, who’s been lights-out (2.33 ERA, 35 strikeouts in 19.1 innings) since being moved out of the rotation and into a bulk role last month. He threw an inning of relief against the New York Mets over the weekend and struck out a whopping 13 in six hitless innings against the Oakland A’s last week.

Over/Under pick

Call me crazy, but despite two great offenses and a great hitter’s park in Fenway, I’m sticking with the under tonight. This is simply a massive number, one that’s a bit too high given how well both Morton and Pivetta have thrown the ball of late. There’s a chance these lineups make me look foolish, but Boston has fallen short of this total in four of their last six while Atlanta has done so in five of seven.

Pick: Under 10.5

Moneyline pick

I have slightly more faith in both Morton and the Braves offense than I do in Pivetta and Boston tonight, as tempted as I am by the plus odds here. We’ve been burned by Pivetta’s penchant for random blow-ups before, and Atlanta just has slightly more depth to its lineup.

Pick: Braves -145