Outright winner picks for 2023 Open Championship

The 2023 Open Championship tees off from Royal Liverpool Golf Club on Thursday, July 20. Cameron Smith, the 2022 winner, returns to the field after dominating the Old Course at St. Andrews. The Royal Liverpool course is mostly flat, and its seaside location provides plenty of sand and scrub as natural hazards. It can also whip up a mean wind.

Rory McIlroy returns to the spot of his last Open Championship win here after taking home the Claret Jug just under a decade ago. He will be aiming for his first major win since 2014. Tiger Woods will not participate.

Here are our picks and predictions for this week’s tournament, which marks the final major of the year. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Rory McIlroy +800

I might be a sucker for a great narrative coming full circle, but Rory is one of the favorites this week for a reason. Fresh off a win at the Genesis Scottish Open, McIlroy has shaken off whatever was plaguing him at big tournaments earlier this year, and he is ready to compete. In 2014, the last time the Open came to Royal Liverpool, McIlroy won his first Claret Jug. He has not won a major since 2014 — is it finally his time to step back into the spotlight?

Ranking third in the field in total strokes gained, McIlroy sits just behind Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm. He ranks third in SG: Tee to Green and in SG: Off the Tee, which will be important on some of the longer par 4s that we’ll see in Hoylake. Data aside, McIlroy has arguably never been more ready to win another major after finishing second at the U.S. Open last month.

Tyrrell Hatton +2500

Hatton has performed well at the Open over the last several years, with a T11 in 2022 and a T6 in 2019. He has also been playing very well this year. He finished T6 at the Scottish Open last week, grabbed a top-15 finish at the PGA Championship, and has finished in the top 20 in seven of his last eight starts.

Hatton ranks seventh in the field in total strokes gained over the last six months. He’s done particularly well off the tee — as mentioned, a necessary tool for this week’s tournament, which could feature some tricky winds coming off the coast.

Collin Morikawa +3500

Morikawa has two majors under his belt, including the 2021 Open. Can he get another? He recently finished in second place at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and Morikawa is back. He dealt with some injury issues earlier this year, but a T14 at the U.S. Open should set him up well here.

He ranks ninth in the field in total strokes gained, and seventh in SG: Tee to Green. He also ranks fourth in SG: Approach, which will serve him well on the oft-tricky and sometimes blind approach shots to the green at this course.