The Atlanta Braves (61-31) will continue their quest to hold onto the best record in baseball when they welcome the Arizona Diamondbacks (52-42) to Truist Park for a three-game series. The Diamondbacks will send All-Star Bryce Elder (7-2, 2.97 ERA) to the mound against Zach Davies (1-5, 6.37 ERA). First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET.
The Braves are -200 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Diamondbacks are +170 underdogs. The total is set at 10.5.
Diamondbacks-Braves picks: Tuesday, July 18th
Out: SP Merrill Kelly (lower right leg blood clot)
Day to day: SP Koby Allard (shoulder), OF Eddie Rosario (right hamstring tightness)
Out: RP A.J. Minter (left shoulder inflammation), RP Jesse Chavez (left shin contusion), SP Max Fried (left forearm strain)
Zach Davies vs. Bryce Elder
After a horrible start to the year, Davies has looked a little better recently, as he ended June with a seven-inning shutout of the Rays, and has put together two July starts of 5+ inning where he allowed four and three runs, respectively. He took the loss his last time out when he allowed three runs on four hits and two walks against the Pirates.
Elder led the National League in ERA before he ended the first half by allowing seven runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Rays. That said, Elder is still a quality pitcher, as he ranks in the 59th percentile in expected slugging, the 82nd percentile in barrel rate, and the 60th percentile in chase rate.
I’m going with the over, in large part because of the offenses. Both the Braves and Diamondbacks boast solid lineups that can hurt you one through nine, which could loom large against two starters who pitch to contact. I’m expecting a bit of regression from Elder in the second half, which should start tonight.
Pick: Over 10.5
The Braves get it done. While I don’t think Elder will be as sharp as he was in the second half, their offense is still among baseball’s best and should have no problem getting on base against Davies.