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Picks, predictions for Dodgers vs. Mets on Friday, July 14

Chris Landers shares their top picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Dodgers-Mets on Friday, July 14.

Justin Verlander of the New York Mets pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres July 7, 2023 at Petco Park in San Diego, California. Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images

National League blue bloods collide to start MLB’s second half, as the Los Angeles Dodgers kick off their East Coast swing with a weekend series against the New York Mets. First pitch of Friday’s opener is set for 7:05 p.m. ET at Citi Field. Julio Urias (6-5, 4.76 ERA) will start for L.A., while Justin Verlander (3-4, 3.60) gets the ball for New York.

The Dodgers enter as narrow -120 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mets at +100. The run total is set at 8.5.

Dodgers-Mets picks: Friday, July 14

Injury report

Los Angeles Dodgers

Out: SP Clayton Kershaw (shoulder), UTIL Chris Taylor (knee), SP Noah Syndergaard (finger), RP Shelby Miller (neck), RP Daniel Hudson (knee),

New York Mets

Day to day: OF Tommy Pham (groin)
Out: SP Jose Quintana (ribs), RP Edwin Uceta (knee), OF Tim Locastro (thumb)

Starting pitchers

Julio Urias vs. Justin Verlander

Urias has had bit of a bumpy season between injuries and inconsistency, but he looked like his old self in his last start before the All-Star break, striking out eight in six innings of two-run ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates. His command hasn’t been as sharp as we’re used to seeing — he’s allowed five or more runs four times this season — and the Dodgers will likely still have him on something of a pitch count in his second start back from a lengthy IL stint, but when he’s on, he’s still among the best starters in the game.

Verlander got off to a rough start after returning from a shoulder injury in May, but he’s been locked in since, pitching to a 2.70 ERA over seven starts since the start of June. At age 40, he’s not the same overwhelming strikeout pitcher we’ve grown accustomed to — his fastball velocity is down a tick, and he’s not earning as many whiffs on just about all of his pitches — but he’s still rock-solid, with a four-pitch arsenal, excellent command and the ability to work deep into games. Verlander has allowed just two runs and 15 hits over 18 innings across his last three outings.

Over/Under pick

These two lineups rank second and third in wRC+ since the start of July, but I’m still backing the under on Friday night. Verlander has been on a roll lately, allowing more than two runs just twice over the last month and a half. Urias, meanwhile, figures to get sharper and sharper the more innings he gets under his belt after his hamstring injury. Both offenses, but especially the Mets, have made a habit of disappearing at times throughout the year, and with two premium arms on the mound, I’m expecting a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

And in that low-scoring affair, the margins — base-running, the bullpens, etc. — become even more important, which is where the Dodgers have the edge. I trust L.A.’s late-inning options much more than New York’s, and I trust their lineup to get a big hit late and pick up a series-opening win.

Pick: Dodgers