Two of the more surprising teams of the first half open the second half against each other when the Miami Marlins travel to Baltimore to take on the Orioles on Friday. The Marlins will send reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara (3-7, 4.72 ERA) to the mound, while the Orioles are countering with Dean Kremer (9-4, 4.78 ERA). First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET.
The Orioles are -120 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Marlins are +100 underdogs. The total is set at 8.5
Orioles-Marlins picks: Friday, July 14
Out: SP Edward Cabrera (right shoulder impingement), OF Avisail Garcia (left back tightness), RP Matt Barnes (left hip impingement), OF Jazz Chisholm Jr. (left oblique strain), OF Jonathan Davis (right knee strain)
Out: RP Cionel Perez (left forearm soreness), SP Keegan Akin (lower back discomfort), RP Austin Voth (right elbow discomfort), RP Dillon Tate (right elbow flexor strain), RP Mychal Givens (right shoulder inflammation), SP John Means (Tommy John surgery)
Sandy Alcantara vs. Dean Kremer
After finishing last season with a 2.28 ERA, Alcantara entered this year’s All-Star break with an ERA nearing five. While he only allowed one run against the Phillies in his last start, he gave up eight hits in 6 2/3 innings. He’s allowed six or more hits in more than half of his starts this season and ranks in the 17th percentile in expected batting average.
Kremer had his best start of the season his last time out, allowing four hits on one earned run in seven innings. Kremer, who ranks in the 84th percentile in walk rate, will be making his first career appearance against the Marlins.
While both Kremer and Alcantara have proven they have front-of-the-line stuff in the past, that hasn’t been the case this season. This total has hit in the last six games Kremer has started and in three of the last four games that Alcantara has started. I’m betting runs aplenty tonight.
Pick: Over 8.5
I like the Marlins to pull off a slight upset. Alcantara obviously has the better resume (even if he hasn’t pitched like this season), and they entered the All-Star break having won five of their last seven.