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Breaking down odds to win the 2023 Home Run Derby

We take a look at the odds to win the 2023 Home Run Derby at T-Mobile Park on Monday.

Pete Alonso of the New York Mets swings at a pitch during the fourth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on July 5, 2023 in Phoenix, Arizona. Photo by Bruce Yeung/Getty Images

After weeks of anticipation, the wait is nearly over: We’re just hours away from the 2023 Home Run Derby. The festivities will get started at 8 p.m. ET, broadcast live on ESPN from T-Mobile Park in Seattle. A star-studded field is set to swing for the fences, and we’ve got odds on all the action courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Pete Alonso is the headliner, as the 2019 and 2021 Derby champion looks to join Ken Griffey Jr. as the only two men to win the event three times. Joining him in Seattle is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — who set the record for most homers in a single Derby back in 2019 before losing to Alonso in a thrilling final — as well as 2022 runner-up (and hometown hero) Julio Rodriguez and first-time Derby contestant Mookie Betts.

With such a stacked group of sluggers, let’s take a look at who is favored to win the Home Run Derby this year.

2023 Home Run Derby odds

Pete Alonso +300
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +360
Luis Robert Jr. +500
Julio Rodriguez +550
Adolis Garcia +650
Randy Arozarena +950
Mookie Betts +1000
Adley Rutschman +1700

This is a pretty bunched-up field. Only Rutschman sticks out as a real long shot, understandable considering his .423 slugging percentage and 12 homers so far this year; he’s among the game’s brightest young stars, but this wouldn’t appear to be his bag. Other than that, though, the market sees this as a wide-open race — leaving us with a few intriguing options at this point before we see an influx of money and line movement.

Alonso is understandably the frontrunner here; not only does he have prodigious power, but he seemingly lives to compete in this event. I can’t help but feel like Rodriguez is being slept on a little bit, though: He darn near won the whole thing last year, routing Alonso in the semis with 31 homers before falling to Juan Soto in the final. J-Rod hits the ball as hard as anyone in baseball, and you know that Seattle’s favorite son would love nothing more than to bring home the hardware in front of his home crowd — he seems to be a bargain at the fourth-shortest odds.

Two other names to consider here are Garcia and Betts. Mookie has openly admitted that participating in the Derby wasn’t his first choice — he’s never done it before, and he had to get talked into saying yes this year — and at 5’9, 180 he’s not exactly built like a typical slugger. But he’s also slugged 26 homers already this season, with three 30-homer campaigns in his career; you’re really telling me that a guy as talented as Betts is that unlikely a champion? He’s worth a play at +1000 just in case he takes to the Derby like he took to bowling and everything else he tries.

As for Garcia, few hitters in baseball are capable of getting hot like he can when it’s all clicking. The Rangers star’s 23 homers have come in bunches this year: six in 11 games in early May, five in eight games in late June, three in five games earlier this month, even three in one game back in April.

If he starts feeling it, he could absolutely run away with this competition — or flame out in the first round.