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Fantasy baseball trade value rankings: Why it’s time to sell high on Luis Arraez

It’s buy or sell time as we run down our weekly batch of the top 200 players for fantasy baseball.

Luis Arraez of the Miami Marlins rounds third base to score a run against the Kansas City Royals at loanDepot park on June 6, 2023 in Miami, Florida. Photo by Jasen Vinlove/Miami Marlins/Getty Images

Please, South Florida, put the pitchforks down. Luis Arraez is awesome, one of the best pure hitters on the planet, and his quest to chase down .400 and the ghost of Ted Williams will be awesome theater all summer long. But more than three months of the 2023 MLB season, it’s time to make moves. Time to decide whether you’re in it to win it this year, and what you might need to make that happen. Time to check narrative and sentiment at the door.

Which is where our weekly trade value rankings come in. Not only do we rank the top 200 players for fantasy baseball (5x5 roto), but we also break down who’s rising, who’s falling and who we recommend targeting on the trade market. Whose hot start is fool’s gold? Who’s about to turn the corner? Read on for this week’s list, and for an explanation why Arraez tops our list of guys you should be looking to sell high, batting title or no.

Buy

  • Call it the New York tax. Whenever a star player struggles, those struggles are bound to be magnified, but that goes double for a player in the biggest media market in the country. And to be clear, Lindor hasn’t been very good so far this year, with a .709 OPS, and OBP below .300 and just four stolen bases despite this year’s rule changes. But he’s still on pace for 23-25 homers, double-digit steals and excellent counting stats thanks to his place in the Mets lineup — a valuable player, in other words, and that’s assuming he doesn’t get back to being the star we know he is as the year goes along.

Lindor has especially struggled from the left side of the plate, hitting a woeful .205/.289/.361 against right-handed pitching this season. That’s 60 points of batting average below his career mark, and given his .246 BABIP, I’m betting that starts climbing soon — in fact, the All-Star’s .241 overall BABIP is 60 points below his mark last year. He’s still posting above-average exit velocities, expected slugging percentage and barrel rate, and when he gets some batted-ball luck and stops pressing quite so much, he should take off.

  • Gilbert hasn’t been bad this year, with a 3.80 ERA and 79 strikeouts over 71 innings. But that mark if anything understates just how great the Seattle Mariners righty has been — Statcast has his expected ERA at 2.99, while his 28.2% K rate and minuscule 4.6% walk rate (good for a 3.14 FIP) suggest that he’s among the best in baseball at controlling the things that a pitcher can control. The righty has introduced a splitter this year, and early returns are promising, with a 32.6% whiff rate and .102 batting average against on the pitcher. If he leans into that offering even more and gets a bit better home run luck, Gilbert will take off — see if you can flip a hot hand like Atlanta Braves rookie Bryce Elder for him.
  • William Contreras’ first year with the Milwaukee Brewers has likely been viewed as something of a disappointment thus far, given his stellar 136 OPS+ last season with the Braves. But the catcher has still been perfectly serviceable — especially given the state of the position overall from a fantasy perspective — and there are signs that big things are coming moving forward.

Contreras’ batted-ball numbers are actually more or less in line with what he did during his 2022 breakout, with an xwOBA and barrel rate that are still well above league average. He’s dramatically reduced his K rate and upped his walk rate, a sign that his plate discipline has improved and he’s seeing the ball well. He still hits the ball on the ground a bit too much, but even accounting for that, his .264 BABIP is way too low. In one of the premier hitter’s parks in baseball, he has top-five potential at the position for the rest of the year.

Sell

  • First thing’s first: Please don’t take this to mean that you should trade Arraez for the sake of trading him. He’s a very good player, in both real life and fantasy. But even this version of Arraez — his 99th percentile outcome — is helping you in exactly one category: batting average. Granted, he’s elite-elite in that category, but that’s still just one slice of the rotisserie pie. And if he slides from elite-elite to merely just very good the rest of the way — say, his career mark of .326 — he suddenly goes back to being a bit part. Consider: Among 162 qualified batters this year, 136 have scored more runs than Arraez (22), and 62 have collected more RBI (29).

If batting average remains a real need on your squad, by all means, keep enjoying those sweet, sweet base hits. But if you’re in good shape there and need help in the other four offensive categories, now’s the time to make a deal — his value will never be higher. If you can get a power/speed bat for him, pull the trigger.

  • Nick Castellanos is in the midst of a bounce-back season for a Philadelphia Phillies team that desperately needs it, hitting .316/.360/.496 with seven homers, 20 doubles, 35 RBI and 38 runs scored. But look under the hood, and the outfielder doesn’t seem so different from the fantasy bust he was last year.

Somehow, Castellanos is hitting the ball on the ground even more than he did in 2022, and his strikeout rate is up near 25%. Always a hyper-aggressive hitter, he’s still very susceptible to breaking stuff, with an expected batting average of .212 against offspeed pitches. Pitchers will eventually adjust, Castellanos will see far fewer fastballs and chase far more pitches out of the zone, and his batting average will take a serious hit. The counting stats in the middle of Philly’s lineup are nice, but players who offer nothing in the way of speed have a narrow margin for error.

  • As someone who banged the drum for Thairo Estrada as an underrated fantasy asset during draft season, this one hurts, but it may be time to strike while the iron is still hot. Estrada has been very solid for the San Francisco Giants and fantasy owners, swatting his seventh homer on Thursday to go with 13 steals and a tidy .300/.346/.468 line while being triple-eligible.

He’s also been, per Statcast, among the luckiest hitters in baseball, with a 48-point gap between his wOBA (.353) and xwOBA (.305). His strikeout rate is way up, his walk rate is down and his expected batting average is just .251 — a poor contact profile for a guy whose game has always been predicated on putting the ball in play to make up for below-average exit velocities. His floor will remain pretty high given his speed and perch atop the Giants lineup, but he should be more of an MI option rather than a top-75 option the rest of the way.

Fantasy baseball trade value rankings: Week 11

As of 6/9

Rank Player Eligible Value
Rank Player Eligible Value
1 Ronald Acuna OF 44
2 Fernando Tatis SS/OF 43
3 Aaron Judge OF 43
4 Kyle Tucker OF 43
5 Shohei Ohtani DH 43
6 Bo Bichette SS 43
7 Julio Rodriguez OF 43
8 Juan Soto OF 38
9 Mookie Betts 2B/OF 35
10 Trea Turner SS 35
11 Jose Ramirez 3B 35
12 Pete Alonso 1B 35
13 Rafael Devers 3B 34
14 Freddie Freeman 1B 31
15 Yordan Alvarez OF 31
16 Mike Trout OF 31
17 Paul Goldschmidt 1B 29
18 Vladimir Guerrero 1B 27
19 Shane McClanahan SP 27
20 Gerrit Cole SP 27
21 Randy Arozarena OF 27
22 Spencer Strider SP 27
23 Max Scherzer SP 27
24 Bryce Harper OF 26
25 Justin Verlander SP 25
26 Matt Olson 1B 25
27 Corbin Burnes SP 25
28 Kevin Gausman SP 27
29 Bobby Witt SS/3B 24
30 Marcus Semien 2B/SS 24
31 Zack Wheeler SP 23
32 Zac Gallen SP 23
33 Austin Riley 3B 22
34 Luis Robert OF 22
35 Nolan Arenado 3B 22
36 Framber Valdez SP 21
37 Emmanuel Clase RP 21
38 Sandy Alcantara SP 21
39 Manny Machado 3B 20
40 Luis Castillo SP 20
41 Josh Hader RP 20
42 Aaron Nola SP 20
43 Adolis Garcia OF 18
44 Francisco Lindor SS 18
45 Bryan Reynolds OF 18
46 Kyle Schwarber OF 18
47 Jacob deGrom SP 17
48 George Springer OF 17
49 Ozzie Albies 2B 17
50 Wander Franco SS 17
51 Will Smith C 16
52 Cedric Mullins OF 16
53 Willy Adames SS 15
54 Joe Musgrove SP 15
55 Yu Darvish SP 15
56 Felix Bautista RP 15
57 Corey Seager SS 15
58 J.T. Realmuto C 15
59 Devin Williams RP 15
60 Jordan Romano RP 15
61 Xander Bogaerts SS 15
62 Daulton Varsho C/OF 15
63 Dylan Cease SP 15
64 Cristian Javier SP 15
65 Nate Lowe 1B 15
66 Teoscar Hernandez OF 15
67 Byron Buxton OF 15
68 Christian Walker 1B 15
69 Shane Bieber SP 15
70 Salvador Perez C 15
71 Brandon Woodruff SP 15
72 Alex Bregman 3B 15
73 Ryan Helsley RP 15
74 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B 15
75 Corbin Carroll OF 15
76 Michael Harris OF 15
77 Julio Urias SP 15
78 Jazz Chisholm 2B/OF 15
79 Clayton Kershaw SP 15
80 Pablo Lopez SP 15
81 Joe Ryan SP 15
82 Tim Anderson SS 15
83 Dansby Swanson SS 15
84 Max Muncy 2B/3B 14
85 Logan Webb SP 14
86 Jose Altuve 2B 14
87 Camilo Doval RP 14
88 Gleyber Torres 2B 14
89 Nico Hoerner 2B/SS 14
90 Ryan Pressly RP 14
91 Jonathan India 2B 14
92 Sean Murphy C 14
93 Rowdy Tellez 1B 14
94 Christian Yelich OF 14
95 Mitch Keller SP 14
96 Yandy Diaz 1B/3B 14
97 Logan Gilbert SP 14
98 Matt Chapman 3B 14
99 Starling Marte OF 13
100 Ryan Mountcastle 1B 13
101 Jeremy Pena SS 13
102 Kenley Jansen RP 13
103 David Bednar RP 13
104 George Kirby SP 13
105 Carlos Rodon SP 12
106 Tommy Edman 2B/SS/OF 12
107 Seiya Suzuki OF 12
108 Luis Severino SP 12
109 Adley Rutschman C 12
110 Masataka Yoshida OF 11
111 Tyler Glasnow SP 11
112 Jarred Kelenic OF 11
113 Thairo Estrada 2B/SS/OF 11
114 Nestor Cortes SP 11
115 Anthony Rizzo 1B 11
116 Ian Happ OF 11
117 Chris Sale SP 11
118 Hunter Renfroe OF 11
119 Eloy Jimenez OF 11
120 Carlos Correa SS 11
121 Freddy Peralta SP 11
122 Kris Bryant OF 11
123 Anthony Santander OF 10
124 Raisel Iglesias RP 10
125 Steven Kwan OF 10
126 Nick Castellanos OF 10
127 Alexis Diaz RP 9
128 Nolan Gorman 2B 9
129 Gunnar Henderson SS/3B 9
130 Sonny Gray SP 9
131 Brandon Lowe 2B 9
132 Hunter Brown SP 8
133 Brandon Nimmo OF 8
134 C.J. Cron 1B 8
135 Giancarlo Stanton OF 8
136 Paul Sewald RP 8
137 Alex Verdugo OF 8
138 Willson Contreras C 8
139 Ty France 1B/3B 8
140 Ketel Marte 2B 8
141 Javier Baez SS 7
142 Nathan Eovaldi SP 7
143 J.D. Martinez DH 7
144 Blake Snell SP 7
145 Chris Bassitt SP 7
146 Hunter Greene SP 7
147 David Robertson RP 7
148 Charlie Morton SP 7
149 Josh Jung 3B 7
150 Francisco Alvarez C 7
151 Alek Manoah SP 7
152 Jesus Luzardo SP 7
153 Alejandro Kirk C 7
154 Jose Alvarado RP 7
155 Andres Gimenez 2B/SS 7
156 MJ Melendez C/OF 7
157 Harrison Bader OF 7
158 James Outman OF 7
159 Jhoan Duran RP 7
160 Liam Hendriks RP 7
161 Lance Lynn SP 7
162 Miguel Vargas 1B/2B 7
163 Josh Bell 1B 6
164 Jose Berrios SP 6
165 Jorge Polanco 2B 6
166 Jordan Montgomery SP 6
167 Lucas Giolito SP 6
168 Jeff McNeil 2B/OF 6
169 Andrew Chafin RP 6
170 Cody Bellinger OF 6
171 Mitch Haniger OF 6
172 Alec Bohm 1B/3B 6
173 Ryan McMahon 2B/3B 6
174 Carlos Estevez RP 6
175 Luis Arraez 1B/2B 6
176 Amed Rosario SS/OF 6
177 Eury Perez SP 6
178 Alex Cobb SP 6
179 Evan Phillips RP 6
180 Triston McKenzie SP 6
181 Marcus Stroman SP 6
182 Max Fried SP 6
183 Lourdes Gurriel OF 6
184 Eugenio Suarez 3B 6
185 Bryce Miller SP 6
186 Anthony Rendon 3B 6
187 Jorge Soler OF 6
188 Josh Naylor 1B/OF 6
189 Lars Nootbaar OF 5
190 Tyler Stephenson C/1B 5
191 Anthony Volpe SS 5
192 Andrew Heaney SP 5
193 Tony Gonsolin SP 5
194 Reid Detmers SP 5
195 Andrew Vaughn 1B 5
196 Taylor Ward OF 5
197 Clay Holmes RP 5
198 Grayson Rodriguez SP 5
199 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B 5
200 Jake Cronenworth 1B/2B/SS 4