Picks, predictions for Mariners vs. Angels on Friday, June 9

Two teams with eyes on the postseason jockey for AL West and AL Wild Card positioning this weekend, as the Seattle Mariners head south for a three-game set against the Los Angeles Angels. First pitch of Friday night’s opener is set for 9:38 p.m. ET from Angel Stadium. It’s a marquee matchup on the mound between two AL Cy Young contenders, as Seattle ace Luis Castillo (4-3, 2.55 ERA) squares off against two-way megastar Shohei Ohtani (5-2, 3.30).

The Angels enter as narrow -120 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mariners at +100. The run total is set at 7.5.

Mariners-Angels picks: Friday, June 9

Injury report

Mariners

Out: SP Marco Gonzales (forearm), RP Penn Murfee (elbow), RP Trevor Gott (back)

Angels

Out: RP Matt Moore (oblique), SP/RP Jose Suarez (shoulder), C Max Stassi (hip)

Starting pitchers

Luis Castillo vs. Shohei Ohtani

After a brief rough patch in early May, Castillo has been white-hot of late, allowing just one run on 10 hits while striking out 24 in 19 innings over his last three starts. The first two of those game against the Oakland Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates, but he also dominated the Texas Rangers in his last time out. The fastball is back up at 97 mph, while the slider (.167 batting average against, 36.8% whiff rate) and changeup (.345 slugging percentage against, 34.9% whiff rate) remain elite secondary offerings. The righty has among the most complete repertoires in the game, and he’s got it all working right now.

Ohtani looked like he might cruise to an AL Cy Young Award after a scorching April, but he’s stumbled over the last month or so, giving up four or more runs four times in his last seven starts — with a combined ERA of 5.02 over that span. The righty is still racking up strikeouts, but he’s giving up an unusual amount of loud contact, with 10 homers allowed over his last seven outings. It’s likely just a blip on the radar — the stuff is as electric as ever, with his splitter, slider and fastball all carrying whiff rates over 30% — but he’s found the heart of the plate a bit too often recently.

Over/Under pick

This is understandably the lowest total on today’s slate, and I’m still taking the under. Seattle’s offense is in a bad way right now — the Mariners have scored more than four runs just once in their last eight games — and Ohtani remains elite despite his recent bout of homeritis. The Angels have been swinging the bats better of late, but with the way Castillo is rolling, it’s hard to imagine either of these teams managing more than three or four runs.

Pick: Under 7.5

Moneyline pick

Castillo and Ohtani largely cancel each other out on the mound, and these are two very good bullpens, so in a true toss-up I’m going to fall back on the lineup with the most firepower — and that’s clearly L.A. right now. Julio Rodriguez has warmed up of late, but he doesn’t have a ton of help, while Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani can win a game with a single swing.

Pick: Angels