Pick against the spread, over/under for Nuggets vs. Heat Game 4 on Friday

The 2023 NBA Finals continue with Game 4 between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC from the Kaseya Center. After splitting the first two games of the series, the Nuggets bounced back with a dominating 109-94 win Wednesday night in Miami.

For Denver, Jamal Murray (hand) is dealing with a left hand abrasion and is currently listed as questionable ahead of Game 4 of the NBA Finals. For Miami, guard Tyler Herro is listed as out and remains sidelined with a broken right hand.

Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, the Nuggets are 3.5-point favorites and -165 on the moneyline. The Heat are +130 moneyline underdogs, and the combined point total is set at 211.

Nuggets vs. Heat, 8:30 p.m. ET

Pick ATS: Heat +3.5

While the Nuggets' Game 3 win painted them as the dominant team in this series, it’s important to highlight that it was a poor third quarter that decided the Heat’s fate Wednesday night. Outside of being outscored by nine points in the third period, Miami was outscored by a combined six points in the other three quarters and was largely able to keep the game tightly contested thanks to its physicality on defense.

While I don’t suspect the Heat will blow out the Nuggets by way of offense, I fully expect Erik Spoelstra to make the necessary adjustments and avoid back-to-back blowouts.

Over/Under: Under 211

Two of the first three games of these Finals have finished under, with the exception coming in Game 2’s 111-108 win by the Heat. Miami doesn’t have the firepower to suddenly outscore Denver, which means its best bet is to ride its zone defense and limit the Nuggets offensively and force turnovers.

The Heat are now riding a three-game home streak with the combined point total hitting the under, and you can bank on them making it four straight games Friday night so long as they ramp up the defensive intensity to avoid a 3-1 deficit.