Picks, predictions for Mets vs. Braves on Thursday, June 8

The Atlanta Braves will look to increase their hold on the National League East when they take on the fading New York Mets in the finale of the teams’ three-game series on Thursday night. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. The Mets will send Justin Verlander (2-3, 4.25 ERA) to the mound looking to snap their skid, while the Braves will counter with their own ace in Spencer Strider (6-2, 2.97 ERA).

Atlanta is the -180 moneyline favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, while New York checks in at +155. The run total is set at 8.5.

Mets-Braves picks: Thursday, June 8

Injury report

New York Mets

Day-to-day: 1B Pete Alonso (left wrist contusion)
Out: RP Edwin Uceta (left ankle sprain), SP Jose Quintana (recovery from rib surgery)

Atlanta Braves

Out: RP Dylan Lee (left shoulder inflammation), RP Michael Tonkin (neck strain), SP Max Fried (left forearm strain), SP Kyle Wright (right shoulder inflammation)

Starting pitchers

Justin Verlander vs. Spencer Strider

Last time out, Verlander threw 117 pitches (the most of any starter this season) in a six-inning outing against the Blue Jays. He currently ranks in the 77th percentile in walk rate and the 60th percentile in expected batting average. This will be Verlander’s first start against the Braves since Oct. 2, 2016 (the final game at Turner Field), when he allowed one run over seven innings.

Strider has gotten off to an electric start to the season, as he’s 6-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 113 strikeouts, which is tied for the highest total in baseball. Strider is coming off a start against the Diamondbacks where he allowed two runs on six innings, and allowed four walks (a season high) and struck out seven (a season low). Strider is 3-1 with a 5.03 ERA in six games against the Mets in his career, and allowed four runs in five innings against them earlier this season.

Over/Under pick

Normally, a start between a Hall of Famer and a bonafide ace is an easy under. But not in this case. Verlander has yet to put together a scoreless start this season, while Strider hasn’t put together a scoreless start since the end of April. This over has hit in the first two games of the series, and I’m thinking it’ll hit again today given Verlander’s current form and Strider’s history against New York.

Pick: Over 8.5

Moneyline pick

The Mets are stuck in a deep rut, and I don’t think that’ll change today. With Pete Alonso likely not playing due to his wrist injury, New York will be without one of its biggest bats at a time where they can’t put anything together. I’m banking on Strider and the Braves to pick up the win tonight.

Pick: Braves