Picks, predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Angels on Friday, June 30

West Coast playoff hopefuls collide as the Arizona Diamondbacks travel to take on the Los Angeles Angels in a big weekend set. First pitch of Friday night’s opener from Angel Stadium is set for 9:38 p.m. ET. Lefty Tommy Henry (4-1, 4.31 ERA) will get the ball for the visitors, while the Halos counter with righty Griffin Canning (6-2, 3.99).

The Angels enter as -155 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the D-backs at +135. The run total is set at 9.5.

Diamondbacks-Angels picks: Friday, June 30

Injury report

Diamondbacks

Day to day: OF Corbin Carroll (shoulder)
Out: SP Merrill Kelly (leg), RP Cole Sulser (shoulder), RP Mark Melancon (shoulder), RP Corbin Martin (shoulder)

Angels

Out: 3B Anthony Rendon (wrist), RP Ben Joyce (elbow), RP Matt Moore (oblique), SS Zach Neto (oblique), C Logan O’Hoppe (shoulder), C Max Stassi (hip), SP/RP Jose Suarez (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Tommy Henry vs. Griffin Canning

Henry has been a bit up and down this year, but he’s been on point over his last two starts, giving up just three runs in 12.2 innings against the Cleveland Guardians and Washington Nationals. The southpaw won’t light up any radar guns or rack up a ton of strikeouts, but he has at least three pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) at average or better that he commands well, and hitters have had a hard time squaring him up all season. Henry ranks in the top 10 percent of the league in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Canning, meanwhile, has been on a roll for over a month now, with a 2.25 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 36 innings across six starts dating back to May 23. He’s shelved his fastball of late, throwing it less than a third of the time while relying heavily on a slider (.333 slugging percentage against, 35% whiff rate), curve (31% whiff rate) and changeup (.189 average against, 27% whiff rate) that are all capable of getting swings and misses when he’s got the feel for them. The righty has faced some tough matchups over this recent stretch, including a trip to Coors Field and the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park, and if all of his secondaries are working, he could thrive again.

Over/Under pick

The Angels have been struggling of late, but the offense isn’t the problem — L.A. is third in team wRC+ this month, as seemingly every other day Shohei Ohtani and MIke Trout are doomed to play out the “Tungsten Arm” O’Doyle tweet. They should have no problem putting up some runs against Henry, but I have some concerns about a D-backs lineup without Corbin Carroll. Canning has been on point recently, and with such a high number to hit, if he delivers five or six more strong innings that should be enough for the under to cash.

Pick: Under 9.5

Moneyline pick

The Angels have at least a slight advantage on the mound in this one, and with Carroll on the shelf for Arizona, they also have the edge at the plate. Of course, this team has been finding ways to lose games they should win for years now, but I’m riding with Ohtani, Trout and Canning in this one.

Pick: Angels