The Toronto Blue Jays struck first in their marquee interleague matchup against the New York Mets this weekend, taking the series opener on Friday in a 1-0 pitcher’s duel. The Mets will look to rebound in front of the home crowd on Saturday afternoon, with first pitch from Citi Field set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Righty Jose Berrios (3-4, 3.86 ERA) will look to continue his hot stretch for the Jays, while New York gives the ball to the shaky Tylor Megill (5-3, 4.67).
This one is nearly a pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Toronto checking in at -115 and the Mets at -105. The run total is set at 8.5.
Blue Jays-Mets picks: Saturday, June 3
Out: 2B Santiago Espinal (right hamstring inflammation), RP Zach Pop (right hamstring), C Danny Jansen (left groin strain)
Out: RP Edwin Uceta (left ankle sprain), SP Jose Quintana (recovery from rib surgery)
Jose Berrios vs. Tylor Megill
A maddeningly inconsistent pitcher in 2022, Berrios seems to have turned a corner lately, with five straight outings of three runs or fewer allowed and at least 5.2 innings pitched. The key appears to be a renewed emphasis on his sinker over his four-seam fastball, with much better results (.232 batting average against vs. .321). As long as he’s keeping his heater from getting pounded, that will allow his elite slider and changeup to shine.
Megill has gotten rocked of late, with a combined 12 runs (eight earned) on 16 hits and four walks over just 7.2 innings across his last two starts. The righty has lost a full 1.5 mph on his fastball since last year, and the pitch is getting smoked as a result — with a .327 batting average and .505 slugging percentage. Megill’s breaking balls are still solid, but if he has nothing to set them up, he’ll continue to struggle.
Neither of these starters inspire too much confidence, and there’s certainly star power up and down both lineups, but I’m still taking the under on a somewhat cool, overcast day in New York. If you throw out their series at Coors Field, Mets have fallen short of this number in six of their last eight games, and last night saw a 3-0 final. Berrios has been much better lately, while Toronto’s offense seems to still be stuck in neutral a bit.
Pick: Under 8.5
I’m a believer in a lot of what Berrios is doing lately, while Megill’s recent performance makes him basically impossible to trust. With two offenses that have high ceilings and low floors, I’ll go with the better guy on the mound.
Pick: Blue Jays