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Picks, predictions for Blue Jays vs. Marlins on Wednesday, June 21

Chris Landers shares their top picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Blue Jays-Marlins on Wednesday, June 21.

Kevin Gausman of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on June 16, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images

Behind a dominant effort from Yusei Kikuchi, the Toronto Blue Jays evened up their interleague set with the Miami Marlins on Tuesday night. Both of these postseason hopefuls will look to sew up a series win in the rubber match on Wednesday afternoon, with first pitch from loanDepot Park set for 12:10 p.m. ET. It’s a marquee matchup on the mound, as Kevin Gausman (6-3, 3.01 ERA) goes for Toronto against reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara (2-5, 4.97).

The Jays enter as -130 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Marlins are narrow +110 underdogs. The run total is set at 7.

Blue Jays-Marlins picks: Wednesday, June 21

Injury report

Blue Jays

Out: C Alejandro Kirk (hand), 1B/DH Brandon Belt (hamstring)


Out: SP Edward Cabrera (shoulder), RP Matt Barnes (hip), 3B Jean Segura (hamstring), OF Jazz Chisholm Jr. (toe), OF Avisail Garcia (back)

Starting pitchers

Kevin Gausman vs. Sandy Alcantara

Gausman didn’t have his usual strikeout stuff last time out against the Texas Rangers’ league-best offense, but the righty still battled through six innings of one-run ball while allowing just four hits. Last week notwithstanding, he’s been a punchout machine this season, with 121 Ks in 92.2 innings of work. Gausman is almost a two-pitch pitcher, relying on his fastball and splitter over 90% of the time — but when your splitter is this filthy (.180 batting average against, 44.8% whiff rate), it doesn’t really matter.

It was yet another rough outing for Alcantara in his last start, coughing up five runs on 10 hits in 5.1 innings with just one strikeout against the Washington Nationals. It marked the fifth time in his last seven starts that the righty has allowed four or more earned runs. His changeup, such a weapon during his breakout last season, is now carrying a .313 batting average against, and the command just isn’t what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing right now.

Over/Under pick

Yesterday’s game saw just two total runs, and I’m backing the under again on Wednesday afternoon. Alcantara’s recent struggles give me pause — this number is so low that he could torch the under all by himself — but I’m betting on at least a bit of a bounce-back against a Jays offense that’s really struggling lately. (Toronto has scored more than three runs in a game just once in their last seven.) With Gausman throwing up zeroes on the other side, I think Alcantara does enough to keep this a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Under 7

Moneyline pick

I may be banking on a return to form for Alcantara, but that doesn’t mean I can pick against Gausman in this spot. The Marlins offense remains a pretty pedestrian group, and I don’t think they’ll be able to muster enough offense to take the rubber match today.

Pick: Blue Jays