Fantasy baseball trade value rankings: Should you sell high on Elly De La Cruz?

Please, put the pitchforks down. I love Elly De La Cruz — the baddest, fastest man in Major League Baseball — as much as anyone. Fantasy baseball is, above all else, supposed to be fun, and owning the next big thing (especially one who can do the stuff Elly does on a baseball field) is about as fun as fun can get. Time to decide whether you’re in it to win it this year, and what you might need to make that happen. Time to check narrative and sentiment at the door.

Which is where our weekly trade value rankings come in. Not only do we rank the top 200 players for fantasy baseball (5x5 roto), but we also break down who’s rising, who’s falling and who we recommend targeting on the trade market. Whose hot start is fool’s gold? Who’s about to turn the corner? Read on for this week’s list, and for an explanation why De LA Cruz tops our list of guys you should be looking to sell high, as fun as all those GIFs are.

Buy

• If you sunk a top-100 pick into Jose Abreu this spring, I know just how long it took you to finally let him go after his historically brutal start to the season. But while there are still plenty of questions as to just how much the 36-year-old has left in the tank, there are signs that now might be the time to buy back in. Abreu’s hitting .407/.429/.815 with five multi-hit efforts over his last six games, and what’s even more encouraging than the stat line are the underlying numbers: the former All-Star’s three home runs during that span have left the bat at 107.1, 109.0 and 109.6 mph, along with a double at 106.2 mph, all of which are a dramatic improvement considering how little damage Abreu had been doing on contact. (His only other home run, which came on May 28, clocked in at 97.4 mph, which is about as weak as a home run can get.) Again, this could just be a dead-cat bounce, but it’s also possible he’s figured something out — and injuries hitting first base hard of late, it’s a gamble worth taking if you can find an owner looking to sell high.
• Speaking of first basemen it’s worth buying in on: The price will be far steeper, but it’s worth seeing what the price in your league might be for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The All-Star is hitting just .255/.364/.362 with only three extra-base hits this month, and it’s possible owners are getting antsy — but the contact metrics show that a Vladdy breakout is imminent. For starters:

That’s a man still doing damage at the plate, even if the top-line stats don’t show it yet. Hix xwOBA (.392 vs. .344) and expected slugging (.538 vs. .440) are far higher than his actual marks right now, and his exit velocity, barrel rate, strikeout and walk marks are all right in line with previous years. He’s even hitting the ball in the air more often this season, which should mean more homers over the long haul. If you can flip an overachieving guy or another big name for him, pull the trigger.

Sell

• With that whole De La Cruz disclaimer out of the way, his market will never be hotter than it is right now — and if you’re looking to plug holes or jumpstart your lineup, I’d at least consider what your league is willing to bear for the rookie supernova. We all know about De La Cruz’s eye-popping 100th-percentile sprint speed and 95th-percentile average exit velocity. But he’s also striking out way, way too much (37.5% K rate), and he’s hitting the ball on the ground nearly 70% of the time. (And that’s before the league even manages to adjust to him after learning his strengths and weaknesses.) The power and speed are legit, but the average concerns are very real and could turn him from a five-category player into a two- or three-category one. If someone is willing to offer an established, early-round bat, I would probably go for it.
• I’ve loved the Marcus Stroman renaissance as much as anyone, but there are red flags all over the Chicago Cubs righty’s profile. For starters, as a sinkerballer who doesn’t strike out too many batters, his fantasy margin for error is slim to begin with — he generates his value with volume and ratios, and if those start to slip, he doesn’t have much to fall back on. A slip is more than likely coming, and coming soon: Stroman’s strand rate (79.8%) is well above league average and nearly eight full points higher than it was last year, while his .235 BABIP and 0.53 HR/FB rate are unsustainably low. Yes, Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson are the best defensive middle infield pairing he’s ever had, and they turn grounders into outs with the best of them. But no one, not even Stroman, can have this sort of batted-ball luck over a full season — it’s no wonder his expected ERA is a far more pedestrian 3.73.

Fantasy baseball trade value rankings: Week 12