Picks, predictions for Blue Jays vs. Orioles on Wednesday, June 14

The red-hot Baltimore Orioles dropped 11 runs for the second consecutive day en route to a big win over the Toronto Blue Jays in the series opener between these two AL East rivals last night. Toronto will look to answer back in game two on Wednesday, with first pitch from Camden Yards scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. The Blue Jays will hand the ball to righty Jose Berrios (6-4, 3.61), while Kyle Bradish (2-2, 4.25) goes for the O’s.

This one is nearly a pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Toronto checking in at -115 and Baltimore at -105. The run total is set at 9.

Blue Jays-Orioles picks: Wednesday, June 14

Injury report

Blue Jays

Out: RP Zach Pop (hamstring), 1B/DH Brandon Belt (hamstring)

Orioles

Out: OF Cedric Mullins (groin), RP Mychal Givens (shoulder), RP Dillon Tate (elbow), 1B Ryan Mountcastle (vertigo)

Starting pitchers

Jose Berrios vs. Kyle Bradish

After a dismal 2022 season (and a dismal start to 2023), Berrios has been a godsend for Toronto’s rotation of late. The righty limited the Houston Astros to just two runs on four hits in six innings last time out, the sixth time in his last seven starts that he’s allowed to earned runs or fewer. His success has coincided with the decision to largely shelve his four-seam fastball — the pitch had been a liability for Berrios in the past, but he now relies mostly on his sinker and his sensational curveball, the main reason he’s posted a career-high 49.8% ground-ball rate so far this year. His curve remains an elite option, and as long as he continues to spot his sinker and changeup he’ll be tough to beat.

Bradish is another guy who might benefit from less of his fastball. The righty’s slider (38% whiff rate, .194 average against) and curveball (34.6% whiff rate, .200 average against) are both top-flight options, but his four-seamer is getting lit up to the tune of a .391 average and .674 slugging percentage. Bradish has given up a combined six runs on 13 hits in nine innings over his last two starts, and he’ll likely to continue to combine strong strikeout numbers with too much loud contact until he figures his fastballs out.

Over/Under pick

These two teams soared past this number in an 11-6 game on Tuesday night, and I’m taking the over again on Wednesday. Berrios has been very solid, but this O’s offense — particularly the revitalized Gunnar Henderson — is rolling right now, and they should be able to push across at least four or five runs tonight. That means we just need Toronto to do the same, and while the Jays lineup has been a bit underwhelming this year, Bradish is been reliably coughing up runs this year.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

In a coin-flip situation, I’ll go with the starter I trust the most. The Blue Jays bats have to wake up eventually, and I’ll bet they do so against Bradish while Berrios does just enough to notch a win.

Pick: Blue Jays