Picks, predictions for Red Sox vs. Yankees on Sunday, June 11

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees have split two tightly-fought games so far this weekend, and now each of them will be gunning for a series win over their arch rival when they meet for the rubber match on Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York, is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. It’ll be a matchup of young righties on the mound, It’ll be a matchup of young righties on the mound, with Brayan Bello (3-4, 3.97 ERA) going for Boston while the Yankees turn to Clarke Schmidt (2-6, 4.96).

New York is the slight -120 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Red Sox checking in at +100. The run total is set at 8.5.

Red Sox-Yankees picks: Sunday, June 11th

Injury report

Red Sox

Out: RP Richard Bleier (shoulder), SP Chris Sale (shoulder), RP John Schreiber (shoulder), INF Yu Chang (hamate), RP Joely Rodriguez (shoulder)

Yankees

Out: OF Aaron Judge (toe), SP Nestor Cortes (rotator cuff), RP Ian Hamilton (groin), OF Harrison Bader (hamstring), OF Greg Allen (hip), RP Ryan Weber (forearm), SP Carlos Rodon (back)

Starting pitchers

Brayan Bello vs. Clarke Schmidt

Injuries waylaid the start of Bello’s 2023 season, but the former top prospect has quietly been very solid for Boston over the last few weeks. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs since April 23, with three quality starts over his last five outings. His changeup remains an elite weapon (.273 SLG against, outstanding 44% whiff rate), and combined with his boring sinker it’s allowed him to neutralize left-handed batters — and post one of the highest ground ball rates of any starter at 57.4%.

Speaking of former top prospects who’ve settled in of late after a rocky start to 2023: Schmidt’s first month was a disaster, but he’s put up a 3.68 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 36.2 innings since the calendar flipped to May. His biggest problem during that awful April was an inability to get lefties out — he hardly uses his changeup and doesn’t have an option that moves away from left-handed hitters — but Schmidt has rectified that problem recently, holding them to a .258/.356/.323 line since May 1. He can still find the middle of the plate a bit too much with his fastball and cutter, but if his command is locked in, he’s got true swing-and-miss stuff.

Over/Under pick

I’ll confess to being a bit puzzled by this run total, especially after these two teams have combined for totals of 5 and 4 in the first two games of this series. This Yankees lineup without Aaron Judge — and with Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton both slumping — is anemic, relying on the likes of Willie Calhoun, Jake Bauers, Billy McKinney and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (not to mention Anthony Volpe and Josh Donaldson hitting around the Mendoza Line). Bello shouldn’t have much trouble barring something very unexpected, which means the Red Sox will have to do the lion’s share of the work for this over to hit. Given Schmidt’s recent form, I’m skeptical.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

I expect both of these starters to throw the ball fairly well, but in the end I have slightly more trust in Bello than Schmidt. The latter’s tendency to give up the long ball, paired with dangerous lefties in the Boston lineup like Rafael Devers and Masataka Yoshida, have me thinking that the Yankees righty will falter just a bit more in what should be another tight game.

Pick: Red Sox