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Last minute Kentucky Derby picks, preview with latest track odds

We make some picks for the Run for the Roses factoring in the prize pools as they currently stand.

Kentucky Derby Previews Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The 2023 Kentucky Derby will be held Saturday, May 6 from Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. It’s the 149th official “Run for the Roses” with all of the races being held at Churchill Downs since 1875. The Kentucky Derby is a Grade I stakes race at a distance of 1 14 miles. The race is open to a field 20 horses, who qualified for the race by earning points on the 2023 Road to the Kentucky Derby. The purse for this year’s race is $3 million.

Last year’s winner was Rich Strike, who beat out Epicenter by 34 length as an 80-1 longshot. And while we likely won’t have a horse with that high a price in this wide open field, there could still be some huge prices amongst the exotic bets with 18 horses.

2023 Kentucky Derby Latest Odds

Program Number Post Position Horse Trainer Jockey Morning Line Odds Current Odds
Program Number Post Position Horse Trainer Jockey Morning Line Odds Current Odds
1 1 Hit Show Brad Cox Manny Franco 30-1 24-1
2 2 Verifying Brad Cox Tyler Gaffalione 15-1 14-1
3 3 Two Phil’s Larry Rivelli Jareth Loveberry 12-1 9-1
4 4 Confidence Game Keith Desormeaux James Graham 20-1 20-1
5 5 Tapit Trice Todd Pletcher Luis Saez 5-1 9-2
6 6 Kingsbarns Todd Pletcher Jose Ortiz 12-1 11-1
7 7 Reincarnate Tim Yakteen John Velazquez 50-1 14-1
8 8 Mage Gustavo Delgado Javier Castellano 15-1 16-1
11 9 Disarm Steve Asmussen Joel Rosario 30-1 26-1
12 10 Jace’s Road Brad Cox Florent Geroux 50-1 32-1
13 11 Sun Thunder Kenny McPeek Brian Hernandez Jr. 50-1 31-1
14 12 Angel of Empire Brad Cox Flavien Prat 8-1 7-2
16 13 Raise Cain Ben Colebrook Gerardo Corrales 50-1 32-1
17 14 Derma Sotogake Hidetaka Otonashi Christophe Lemaire 10-1 8-1
18 15 Rocket Can Bill Mott Junior Alvarado 30-1 28-1
21 16 Cyclone Mischief Dale Romans Irad Ortiz Jr. 30-1 27-1
22 17 Mandarin Hero Terunobu Fujita Kazushi Kimura 20-1 18-1
23 18 King Russell Ron Moquett Rafael Bejarano 50-1 31-1
Scratch Scratch Practical Move Tim Yakteen Ramon Vazquez 10-1
Scratch Scratch Lord Miles Saffie Joseph Jr. Paco Lopez 30-1
Scratch Scratch Continuar Yoshito Yahagi Ryusei Sakai 50-1
Scratch Scratch Skinner John Shirreffs Juan Hernandez 20-1
Scratch Scratch Forte Todd Pletcher Irad Ortiz Jr. 3-1

If this race runs to form expect Reincarnate and Jace’s Road to set the early pace on what could be a faster track than what we’ve seen in the major Derby prep races.

The favorites, Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire should lay a back a little, occupying the middle of the pack through the 3/4 mile pole. Then the action begins.

Forte would have been the likely choice to kick it into high gear about here, but the latest possible scratch means there could be more time to await the pace. The other Todd Pletcher mount in Tapit Trice could be the best overall horse, and probably benefits the most as he might not need as early a move.

Angel of Empire is the best in the late pace and when it comes down to the stretch, and the lack of Forte means Brad Cox’s best chance should find a late line.

If you want to look at sleepers, Kingsbarn and Verifying are good to put in some exotics. Kingsbarn is 3-for-3 in all starts, including a W in the Louisiana Derby six weeks ago. Verifying only has two wins in six starts and threw his training rider off just two days ago in a workout, but with a pair of Equibase finishes at 102 the talent and pace is clearly there.