After busting out the bats in a big way in the first tow games of this three-game set, the New York Yankees will go for a sweep of the Seattle Mariners on Wednesday night. First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington. Righty Clarke Schmidt (2-5, 5.58 ERA) gets the ball for New York, while Seattle counters with George Kirby (5-4, 3.43).
The Mariners enter as -135 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Yankees are the +115 underdog. The run total is set at 7.5.
Yankees-Mariners picks: Wednesday, May 31
Injury report
Yankees
Day to Day: 1B Anthony Rizzo (neck)
Out: OF Harrison Bader (hamstring), RP Ian Hamilton (groin), C Jose Trevino (hamstring), 3B Josh Donaldson (hamstring), OF/DH Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring)
Mariners
Out: RP Penn Murfee (elbow), RP Andres Munoz (shoulder), UTIL Dylan Moore (oblique)
Starting pitchers
Clarke Schmidt vs. George Kirby
Schmidt has stabilized a bit this month after a horrible start, with two or fewer earned runs in four of five of his outings in May. The righty still isn’t working particularly deep into games, completing six innings just once all year — in large part thanks to his struggles against lefties (a whopping .354/.425/.616 slash line allowed) and the second and third time through the order (.954 and 1.141 OPS allowed, respectively). Schmidt could be set up for some success today in a pitcher’s park against a lineup that doesn’t feature many impact lefty bats outside of Jarred Kelenic.
Rock-solid for most of the season, Kirby is coming off his worst start of the year, giving up seven runs on nine hits and four walks in just 4.2 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates last week. When he’s on his game, the righty uses a fastballs up, sliders and curveballs down approach, with elite command of all of his offerings (99th percentil walk rate) that helps him induce tons of weak contact (73rd percentile hard-hit rate). The former first-round pick has already established himself as one of the sturdiest starters in the game since breaking in last year, so expect last week’s blow-up to be just a blip — although his lack of swing-and-miss ability does make his floor lower than you’d like.
Over/Under pick
I actually think Schmidt will fare pretty well today, as this Mariners team has the fifth-highest strikeout rate in baseball against righties and doesn’t have the type of left-handed bats that have given Schmidt fits this year. With New York’s bullpen rested and one of the most reliable run-preventers in the game on the other side, expect a more low-scoring affair as New York’s overachieving offense falls back to Earth a bit.
Pick: Under 7.5
Moneyline pick
In what should be a tight game, go with the plus odds and the team with the best bullpen — both of which favor the Yankees.
Pick: Yankees