The Philadelphia Phillies take on the New York Mets in the first game of a three-game series on Tuesday, May 30. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. Ranger Suarez (0-1, 9.92 ERA) will pitch for the Phillies, while Kodai Senga (4-3, 3.94 ERA) takes the mound for the Mets.
New York enters as the -135 moneyline favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Philly coming in at +115. The total is set at 8.5.
Phillies-Mets picks: Tuesday, May 30
Day to day: 2B Jeff McNeil (groin)
Out: RP Edwin Uceta (ankle), RP Jimmy Yacabonis (quad)
Out: RP Jose Alvarado (elbow), OF Cristian Pache (knee), 1B Darick Hall (thumb), 1B Rhys Hoskins (knee), C Rafael Marchan (wrist), SP Noah Song (back)
Ranger Suarez vs. Kodai Senga
Suarez has struggled since returning from the IL earlier this month. In just three starts, he has amassed 12 earned runs over 11 innings pitched, striking out 13 and walking five in that timeframe. Just two weeks ago, he was pulled after two innings against the Cubs after allowing four runs.
Senga is settling into the Majors, allowing four runs in 11 innings pitched over his last two starts. In his latest appearance, he allowed three earned runs to the Cubs and struck out six batters over five innings. He has also excelled at Citi Field this season, allowing just four runs in 23 innings pitched.
Neither of these teams average more than 4.5 runs per game. We can expect Senga to keep the Phillies’ scoring to a minimum, but even if the Mets light up Suarez, I think we stay below the total in this matchup of two below-average offenses.
Pick: Under 8.5
With how Senga has been performing at home and how Suarez has been performing in general, I like the Mets to continue their home winning streak here. While the Phillies’ bullpen isn’t bad, Suarez hasn’t been giving them much room to work, and Philly has dropped to 21st in runs per game so run support may be at a minimum. While the Mets’ offense isn’t exactly something to write home about, they have a home advantage and the better pitcher.