The San Diego Padres continue their East Coast swing as they head up to the Bronx for a star-studded showdown against the New York Yankees this weekend. First pitch for the series opener from Yankee Stadium is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. The Friars will send ace Jos Musgrove (1-2, 6.75 ERA) to the mound, while New York turns to rookie Randy Vasquez for his first career MLB start in lieu of the suspended Domingo German.
The Padres are listed at -115 on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Yankees check in at -105. The run total is set at 9.5.
Padres-Yankees picks: Friday, May 26
Day to day: 3B Manny Machado (hand)
Out: RP Nabil Crismatt (hip), SP Seth Lugo (calf), C Luis Campusano (thumb), RP Drew Pomeranz (elbow)
Out: 3B Josh Donaldson (hamstring), OF/DH Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring), SP Carlos Rodon (back/elbow), C Jose Trevino (hamstring), RP Ian Hamilton (groin), RP Tommy Kahnle (biceps)
Joe Musgrove vs. Randy Vasquez
Musgrove’s gotten off to a bumpy start after a toe fracture delayed his 2023 debut. The righty has coughed up eight combines runs on 14 hits and five walks in just 10.2 innings across his last two starts, and he hasn’t looked like nearly the pitcher who tore up the league last season. A major reason why is Musgrove’s slider: He threw it a whopping 24.4% of the time in 2022, holding hitters to a .217 batting average against, but he’s lost some two inches of movement on it — and as a result hitters are lighting it up to the tune of a 1.000 slugging percentage so far this year. There are reasons for optimism — .329 BABIP and 66.5% LOB rate that are sure to positively regress, plus an expected ERA nearly two runs lower than his actual mark — but he’ll need to regain his feel for his offspeed stuff in order to regain his dominant form.
With Domingo German suspended for 10 games due to an illegal foreign substance on his pitching hand, New York will call up Randy Vasquez from Triple-A to make his MLB debut. The 24-year-old righty put up a 4.85 ERA in the Minors this year, although he’s pitched to a 2.67 mark over his last five starts.
Both Musgrove and the rookie Vasquez have pretty low floors in this one, but I’m still taking the under with a pretty high number. Even with Musgrove’s struggles, the totals of his last three starts have been seven, six and six, and these are two offenses that haven’t yet found fifth gear this season.
Pick: Under 9.5
I think Musgrove finds a bit of his 2022 form against a righty-heavy Yankees lineup that he should match up well with. Vasquez has never been a highly-touted prospect and we can’t expect too much of him in his first career start.