Picks, predictions for Orioles vs. Yankees on Thursday, May 25

The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees are set to meet one more time as they wrap up a crucial AL East series in the Bronx. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Righty Kyle Gibson (5-3, 4.27 ERA) will get the ball for Baltimore, while New York counters with Clarke Schmidt (2-4, 6.00).

New York enters as a -125 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the O’s are listed as narrow +105 underdogs. The run total is set at 9.

Orioles-Yankees picks: Thursday, May 25

Injury report

Orioles

Out: RP Dillon Tate (forearm), 3B Ramon Urias (hamstring)

Yankees

Out: C Jose Trevino (hamstring), SP Luis Severino (lat), SP Domingo German (suspension), RP Ian Hamilton (groin), OF/DH Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring), 3B Josh Donaldson (hamstring), INF Oswald Peraza (hamstring), RP Tommy Kahnle (biceps), SP Carlos Rodon (back)

Starting pitchers

Kyle Gibson vs. Clarke Schmidt

Gibson’s season-long numbers paint the picture of a solid, league-average innings-eater, but the righty has gotten there in just about the most unpredictable way imaginable. In his five wins, he’s put up a 2.56 ERA and 1.042 WHIP. In five combined losses and no decisions, those numbers rise to 6.26 and 1.72. The righty’s slider remains a very strong pitch, but both his cutter and four-seam fastball have gotten rocked — leading to real trouble getting righties out (.924 OPS allowed vs. .587 to righties).

Schmidt is coming off a bounce-back outing against the Cincinnati Reds last weekend, allowing two runs on five hits in five innings of work while striking out six. The righty boasts two legit offspeed offerings in a slider and curveball that both produce plenty of swings and misses, but both of his fastballs — a sinker and a cutter — have gotten hit hard all year. That also leaves him without an option that he can use to attack the outside corner against lefties, which is a large part of the reason he has such an extreme platoon split (a whopping 1.074 OPS allowed to lefties vs. .733 to righties). Against righty-heavy lineups — or when he has great command of his sinker — Schmidt has some upside, but he’s been far too erratic to trust with four different starts of four or more earned runs allowed.

Over/Under pick

This number feels a little bit high, largely because these are two elite bullpens that can cover for a poor starting performance. For as rocky as Schmidt has been, just four of the 10 games he’s started have cleared nine runs, while it’s just three of 10 for Gibson. I’ll take that trend to continue.

Pick: Under 9

Moneyline pick

I think Gibson matches up better than Schmidt in a battle between two mercurial righties, and Baltimore’s lefty bats — and dominant bullpen — should lead the way to a win.

Pick: Orioles