The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics will meet in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals Friday with Miami holding a 1-0 lead. The Celtics will look to avoid going to South Beach down 2-0 in the series, while the Heat are playing with house money as they’ve already stolen homecourt advantage for the series.
Here we’ll take a look at one potential DFS strategy for Showdown contests on DraftKings involving this matchup with Captain’s picks, flex plays and fades.
Jimmy Butler ($18,600) - After a relatively down outing in Game 6 against the Knicks with just 40 DKFP, Butler went for 63.3 DKFP in Game 1. The Heat forward is priced at the top of the list but he’s worth this payment in the captain spot. Butler’s usage is through the roof, and no one has had an answer for him the playoffs so far. He’ll keep his stellar production going in Game 2.
Jaylen Brown ($15,300) - Brown comes in slightly cheaper than Jayson Tatum while offering the same upside. The Celtics forward finished with 38.3 DKFP in Game 1, but left some points on the table by going 1-6 from deep. Brown will continue being aggressive, especially if Tatum gets off to another slow start. This is a good spot to save some cash.
Max Strus ($6,200) - There’s a lot of variance with Strus due to his reliance on the three-point shot, but the guard has been more consistent in the playoffs of late. In the last six games, Strus has gone under 20 DKFP just once while hitting 25+ DKFP on three occasions. Back him to keep up his excellent play in Game 2.
Malcolm Brogdon ($5,800) - The Celtics have found something with Brogdon, who is becoming more aggressive with the second unit as these playoffs go on. The Sixth Man of the Year finished with 23.5 DKFP in Game 1 and more importantly, was part of the closing lineup for the Celtics as they attempted to complete a comeback. At this price point, he’s worth backing in Friday’s contest.
Marcus Smart ($7,200) - Smart was excellent in Game 1 with 38.3 DKFP, but he tends to follow up these great games with duds. He’s also been fairly poor at home lately, as his Game 1 showing was his highest fantasy output at TD Garden since Game 2 against the Hawks. Smart has usage as a starter but there’s a lot of risk here. Fade him for Game 2.
Caleb Martin ($5,000) - Martin has taken on a bigger role with Miami since the injuries to Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo, but Game 1 was still an outlier for the forward. He logged 32 DKFP, which was his highest fantasy point total since Game 2 against the Knicks. There’s too much inconsistency and negative regression to the mean Friday to back Martin, even at a reasonable cost.
The Heat aren’t going to fade quietly or get complacent after taking Game 1. Expect the Celtics to potentially start a bit sloppy with the pressure of Game 2 but eventually settle into a rhythm. Brown is due for a breakout game in the playoffs, and Tatum should be better down the stretch. The Celtics withstand another big outing from Jimmy Butler to level this series 1-1.
Final score: Celtics 116, Heat 110