After an inconsistent first month and a half of the season, the Philadelphia Phillies are looking to gain some offensive momentum when they travel to Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies in a three-game series. Taijuan Walker (3-2, 5.97 ERA) toes the rubber for the Phils in the first game, and will go against Colorado lefty Austin Gomber (3-4, 6.75).
The Phillies are the -140 moneyline favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Rockies are +120 underdogs. The total sits at 11.
Phillies-Rockies picks: Friday, May 12th
Day to day: OF Kyle Schwarber (bruised foot)
Out: RP José Alvarado (left elbow inflammation), SP Ranger Suárez (left forearm), 1B Darick Hall (torn UCL in right thumb), OF Christian Pache (right meniscus tear)
Day to day: SP Antonio Senzatela (right forearm tightness)
Out: RP Dinelson Lamet (lower back stiffness), SP Germán Márquez (right elbow inflammation)
Taijuan Walker vs. Austin Gomber
Walker has struggled this season but is coming off his best start of the year, when he allowed three hits and one run over six innings against the Boston Red Sox. Walker’s leaned heavily on his split-finger (.255 batting average against) and fastball (.278) so far, and ranks in the 86th percentile in chase rate.
Gomber’s looked like a different pitcher since he allowed nine earned runs in two innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 19, as he’s tallied a 1.59 ERA (17 innings) in his three starts since. That said, Gomber still ranks in the 8th percentile in expected slugging (.531) and the 7th percentile in expected batting average (.302). He’s particularly struggled at home, with a 10.55 ERA.
I’m backing the over in a game that should have plenty of runs. Both Gomber and Walker have proven that they can give up runs in bunches, while both offenses feature plenty of firepower. At a normal ballpark, 11 runs is a little steep. That should be child’s play at Coors Field.
Pick: Over 11
In a game that has a lot of offense, I’m backing the Phillies’ deeper lineup. While the loss of Alvarado hurts the Philadelphia bullpen in the long-run, it shouldn’t matter tonight.