After two tightly contested games this week, the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners go at it one more time in the rubber game of this key AL West set on Wednesday afternoon. First pitch from T-Mobile Park in Seattle is set for 3:40 p.m. ET. Dane Dunning (2-0, 1.42 ERA) will make his second start of the year for the Rangers, while Seattle sends ace Luis Castillo (2-0, 2.38) to the mound.
The Mariners are currently listed as -190 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Texas is a +160 underdog. The run total is set at 7.5.
Rangers-Mariners picks: Wednesday, May 10
Out: SP Jacob deGrom (elbow), SS Corey Seager (hamstring), C Mitch Garver (knee), OF Travis Jankowski (hamstring)
Day to day: 2B Kolten Wong (wrist), SS J.P. Crawford (knee)
Out: SP Robbie Ray (elbow), RP Andres Munoz (deltoid), UTIL Dylan Moore (core), RP Penn Murfee (elbow)
Dane Dunning vs. Luis Castillo
Thrust into the rotation due to deGrom’s injury, Dunning acquitted himself well last time out, with five shutout innings at home against the Los Angeles Angels. The righty certainly won’t light up the radar gun, but he has excellent command of his cutter and sinker and uses them on either corner to induce tons of weak grounders (53.5% ground ball rate, 92nd percentile in barrel rate).
Castillo gave up four runs on five hits over seven innings against the Houston Astros in his last start — and that was his worst start of the season, if you want a sense of how good the righty has been in 2023. He’s got 32 strikeouts to just eight walks over 28.2 innings, allowing more than two runs in a game just twice while pitching six innings or more five times. He’s throwing his four-seam fastball more than ever, and with a 35.4% whiff rate, it’s hard to argue with the results.
The first two games of this series have featured just three and five total runs, and with another dominant righty on the mound for the Mariners today, I think that trend continues — it’s hard to see Castillo allowing more than a couple runs, and I don’t trust Seattle’s lineup to pick up that slack and push the number over.
Pick: Under 7.5
It doesn’t feel great to side with this Mariners lineup over a Rangers unit that’s been wrecking shop all year, but that’s how much faith I have in Castillo to keep Texas in check. If Seattle can just scratch a couple across against Dunning, they should be in good shape.