Vikings win total prediction 2023: Picking Minnesota’s win total

The Minnesota Vikings ran away with the NFC North last season while posting a strong 13-4 record. That’s the good news. However, Minnesota lost in the Wild Card Round to the New York Giants, and its overall point differential on the season was negative three.

Based on that and several other stats, some regression seems normal for the Vikings in 2023. But how much? We’ll take a look at the latest DraftKings Sportsbook lines and predict if the Minnesota Vikings can beat their 2023 win total. The odds below are as of May 1, 2023.

NFC North win totals

Chicago Bears: 7.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Detroit Lions 9.5 (Over -150, Under +130)
Green Bay Packers 7.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
Minnesota Vikings 8.5 (Over -120, Under +100)

Notable offseason moves

The Vikings moved on from defensive coordinator Ed Donatell and brought in former Miami Dolphins head coach Brian Flores to lead that side of the ball. He’ll be without DT Dalvin Tomlinson, CB Patrick Peterson, and ILB Eric Kendricks — who all moved on in free agency. However, Minnesota picked up CB Byron Murphy, DE Marcus Davenport, and DE Dean Lowry to help replace them.

On offense, the Vikings let veteran WR Adam Thielen walk in free agency, then selected USC star receiver Jordan Addison in the 2023 NFL Draft. Minnesota also added TE Josh Oliver (previously with the Baltimore Ravens) through free agency while using third and fourth round selections on USC CB Mekhi Blackmon and LSU safety Jay Ward respectively.

Minnesota Vikings prediction: Over 8.5

Let’s face it: the Vikings aren’t getting back to 13 wins. However, nine or 10 victories seems doable, especially in a mediocre NFC North.

The Lions are favored to win this division, and the Packers could take a noticeable step back without Aaron Rodgers. Yes, Minnesota may have used up all of its luck by winning an inconceivable amount of close games last season. Still, let’s remember that the Vikings did this while ranking 31st in total defense. Any improvement on that side of the ball, which should happen under Flores, will put them in a decent position to flirt with double-digit victories.

What moves might change our prediction?

Dalvin Cook is listed as a trade candidate heading into the summer. Minnesota wants to keep him on the roster, but his $14 million cap hit makes things a little more complicated. If the Vikings decide to part ways with Cook, it wouldn’t drastically change the overall prediction, but it could cause less optimism.