Picks, predictions for Guardians vs. Yankees on Monday, May 1

The last time the New York Yankees faced off against the Cleveland Guardians this season, they won two out of three in Cleveland at the beginning of April to bump their record up to 8-4. Nothing has seemingly gone right for the Bronx Bombers since then, as they’ve gone 7-10 and enter this weekend’s series with a ton of injury uncertainty. They’ll look to right the ship when they send Domingo German (2-2, 5.54 ERA) out against Guardians righty Cal Quantrill (1-2, 5.40 ERA).

The Yankees are -130 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Guardians are +110 underdogs. The total is set at 8.5.

Guardians-Yankees picks: Monday, May 1st

Injury report

Guardians

Out: RP Sam Hentges (left shoulder inflammation), SP Aaron Civale (left oblique strain), SP Triston McKenzie (right teres major strain)

Yankees

Day to day: OF Aaron Judge (mild hip strain), OF Jake Bauers (right knee contusion)
Out: OF Harrison Bader (left oblique strain), SP Luis Severino (right lat strain), 3B Josh Donaldson (right hamstring strain), SP Carlos Rodon (left elbow strain, back stiffness), RP Jonathan Loaisiga (right elbow inflammation), C Ben Rortvedt (shoulder aneurysm), OF Giancarlo Stanton (left hamstring)

Starting pitchers

Cal Quantrill vs. Domingo German

Over the past three seasons, Quantrill has finished with an expected ERA that was nearly a point higher than his actual ERA. That’s finally caught up to him this season, as he has an ERA of 5.40 that lines up perfectly with his actual ERA of 5.40. While he’s never been a strikeout pitcher, Quantrill only has a strikeout rate of 12.8% (4th percentile) and is coming off a start against the Rockies where he gave up five runs in 3.1 innings.

Things haven’t gone much better for German, who enters tonight’s start with an ERA of 5.54. While he has a strong strikeout rate (84th percentile), chase rate (92nd percentile) and whiff rate (93rd percentile), he’s giving up a ton of hard contact (3rd percentile in barrel rate) and has an expected batting average of .246. German is coming off a start where he allowed six runs in six innings against the Twins, and he allowed two runs in three innings against Cleveland earlier this year.

Over/Under pick

I’m taking the over here, as neither pitcher has proven they can keep opponents off the scoreboard. While both offenses are struggling (the Yankees only scored six runs in their four-game series against the Rangers), they’ll get a chance to jump-start things against starters who are still trying to find their groove.

Pick: Over 8.5

Moneyline pick

With so much uncertainty surrounding the Yankees, I’m taking the Guardians. The Yankees offense has looked lost without Judge (Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Judge likely won’t play Monday as they wait and see whether he needs an IL stint), and I just can’t see them keeping up in a game that could quickly become a slugfest.

Pick: Guardians