Pick on the Total for Giants-Padres on April 29

For the first time in MLB history on Saturday, there will be an MLB game played in Mexico City as the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres play at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu on Saturday.

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres (-180, 15.5)

The total has went a mile high for this game due to the ballpark dimensions of Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu, which is a little over 2,000 feet further above sea level than Coors Field at about 7,300 feet above sea level.

For comparison, Coors Field has its fences out at 347 feet down the left-field line and 350-feet down the right field line with dead center extending to 415 feet while the fences in Mexico City are out at 325 field along both right and left field and dead center being out at 400 feet.

In order to take advantage though, the ball has to be put in play and the Giants enter the series with the highest MLB strikeout rate on offense, striking out on 27.5% of at-bats while the Padres are 16th in this category.

The Padres have had difficulty all season generating offense with just 3.7 runs per game, which ranks 27th in the league while they’re .215 batting average is last among National League teams.

The Giants give Sean Manaea that start on Saturday, but he is unlikely provide a lot of length considering he has a 6.61 ERA this season and was just used out of the bullpen in Tuesday’s game against the St. Louis Cardinals. Across Manaea’s five pitching appearances this season, has went 3 2/3 innings or fewer in four of them.

While the Giants bullpen is 23rd in the league in ERA since the 2022 All-Star Break, they might be set up for success in this ballpark as the bullpen ranks fourth among MLB team in this span in ground ball rate at 46.8%.

The Padres send All-Star starting pitcher Joe Musgrove to oppose a Giants team that is averaging two home runs per game on the road leads the National League.

Ground balls are Musgrove’s specialty though as he has a ground ball-to-fly ball out ratio above three since the start of the 2022 season, which ranks ninth among qualifying pitchers and has a 3.14 road ERA since the start of the 2022 season.

While Saturday’s game in Mexico City figures to feature more scoring than a game in San Francisco or San Diego, the initial total of 15 is over-reactionary given the way both team induce ground balls and the Padres general offensive woes this season.

The Play: Giants vs. Padres Under 15.5