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Picks, predictions for Guardians vs. Red Sox on Friday, April 28

Erik Buchinger shares his top picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Guardians-Red Sox on Friday, April 28.

MLB: Boston Red Sox at Milwaukee Brewers Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The Cleveland Guardians (12-13) and Boston Red Sox (13-13) will start a three-game weekend series on Friday, April 28 at 7:10 p.m. ET from Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. The Red Sox dropped two of three in this week’s road series with the Baltimore Orioles, and the Guardians did the same at home against the Colorado Rockies. Shane Bieber (1-1, 3.23 ERA) will look to get Cleveland back on track, while mercurial righty Nick Pivetta (1-1, 4.58) goes for Boston.

The Guardians are -125 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, making the Red Sox +105 underdogs. The over/under is set at 9.

Guardians-Red Sox picks: Friday, April 28

Injury report


Out: SP Aaron Civale (oblique), SP Triston McKenzie (shoulder), RP Sam Hentges (shoulder), SP Cody Morris (shoulder)

Red Sox

Out: 3B Yu Chang (wrist), RP Chris Martin (shoulder), RP Zack Kelly (elbow), OF Adam Duvall (wrist), RP Wyatt Mills (elbow), RP Joely Rodriguez (oblique), RP Jamex Paxton (hamstring), 2B Trevor Story (elbow), SS Adalberto Mondesi (knee)

Starting pitchers

Shane Bieber vs. Nick Pivetta

Bieber has allowed three or fewer runs in all five starts this season and is coming off an outing where he allowed three runs on four hits and four walks over 5.2 innings in a loss to the Miami Marlins last weekend.

Pivetta had ERAs in the 4.5’s over the last two years, so his start to 2023 is very consistent with his recent season-long numbers. In his last start, Pivetta gave up three runs on seven hits and a walk with seven strikeouts over 5.2 innings in a win over the Milwaukee Brewers.

Over/Under pick

The Red Sox have been swinging a hot bat this season with the fourth most runs per game (5.6), but Bieber is one of the most consistently solid pitchers in the game coming off a season where he finished with a 2.88 ERA. He should minimize what Boston can do, and Cleveland’s offense isn’t good enough to do much damage to this total with a slugging percentage (.348) that’s 27th in the league.

Pick: Under 9

Moneyline pick

The Red Sox have a far better offense in this matchup, but Bieber negates that advantage with a sizeable edge on the mound. The Guardians would struggle to compete in a slugfest but if this game falls short of the over/under, that’s great news for Cleveland in this spot.

Pick: Guardians