Picks, predictions for Yankees vs. Twins on Wednesday, April 26

The Minnesota Twins look to sweep a New York Yankees team that’s taking on water right now in the final game of their three-game set from Target Field. First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET. Domingo German (1-2, 4.50 ERA) will look to stop the bleeding for New York, while Kenta Maeda (0-3, 4.15) has recovered from his ankle injury and is set to make the start for Minnesota.

The Twins are -120 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Yankees are narrow +100 underdogs. The run total is set at 8.

Yankees-Twins picks: Wednesday, April 26

Injury report

Yankees

Out: SP Carlos Rodon (left elbow strain, back), OF Harrison Bader (left oblique strain), SP Luis Severino (right lat strain), RP Jonathan Loaisiga (right elbow inflammation), 3B Josh Donaldson (right hamstring strain), C Ben Rortvedt (shoulder aneurysm), DH Giancarlo Stanton (left hamstring)

Twins

Out: INF Kyle Farmer (facial laceration), 1B/OF Alex Kirilloff (right wrist), SP Josh Winder (right shoulder soreness), RP Ronny Henriquez (sore right posterior elbow)

Starting pitchers

Domingo German vs. Kenta Maeda

German has been hard to trust in his time in the Yankees’ rotation, but he’s coming off of two straight solid outings — including 11 strikeouts over 6.1 innings against these same Twins two weeks ago. A key for the righty has been deemphasizing his four-seam fastball (which carries a frankly ridiculous expected slugging percentage of 1.212 so far this year) in favor of his curveball and changeup. German now throws his heater just 26.3% of the time, compared to 40% for his curve and 22.1% for the change, and he’s shown very good command of those secondaries in just about every count.

It’s tough to know what to make of Maeda, who left his start against the Boston Red Sox early after taking a comebacker off his ankle. The righty still doesn’t seem like he quite has the feel for his slider and splitter as he returns from Tommy John surgery — the split in particular is his putaway pitch, and he’s not burying it underneath bats the way he used to.

Over/Under pick

This may seem bold given that this Yankees lineup is a shell of itself, but I’m taking the over here. German has been solid in his last two outings, but New York has seen this movie before — he can turn back into a pumpkin at the drop of a hat. Maeda, meanwhile, still seems vulnerable as he gets his footing under him, and shouldn’t be able to work too deep into the game today given the extended lay off between starts.

Pick: Over 8

Moneyline pick

New York’s bats have to wake up at some point, right? Maeda has been prone to the home run ball, even going back before his surgery, and I think today is the day that Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Co. get going to help the Yankees avoid a humiliating sweep behind a good-enough effort from German and the bullpen.

Pick: Yankees