Picks, predictions for Red Sox vs. Orioles on Wednesday, April 26

The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles meet for the rubber game of what’s been a high-flying three-game set from Camden Yards, after Boston struck back with a big win in game two on Tuesday night. First pitch is set for 1:05 p.m. ET. Tanner Houck (3-0, 4.29 ERA) will get the ball for the Red Sox, while Tyler Wells (0-1, 2.70) goes for Baltimore.

The O’s are currently -115 on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Boston checks in at -105. The run total is set at 8.5.

Red Sox-Orioles picks: Wednesday, April 26

Injury report

Red Sox

Day to day: INF Christian Arroyo (hamstring)

Out: SP James Paxton (hamstring), RP Chris Martin (shoulder), RP Joely Rodriguez (oblique), OF Adam Duvall (wrist), INF Yu Chang (wrist)

Orioles

Out: RP Dillon Tate (elbow), RP Mychal Givens (knee), SP John Means (elbow)

Starting pitchers

Tanner Houck vs. Tyler Wells

Houck is coming off probably his best outing of the year, seven innings of three-run ball against the Minnesota Twins. The righty is largely a two-pitch pitcher, relying on his fastball and slider without a consistent means of getting lefties out — left-handed batters have an OPS nearly 400 points higher (.863) than righties. His command with the slider also hasn’t been as sharp as we’ve seen in previous years. The pitch is getting hit hard, with an expected slugging percentage of .509.

Wells has been a pleasant surprise in Baltimore’s rotation, most recently spinning seven shutout innings against the Detroit Tigers at home. The righty doesn’t have the most overpowering stuff — with a strikeout rate below 20 percent — but he commands every single one of his pitches, from four-seamers up:

To sliders down and away to righties:

He’s rarely over the middle of the plate, and the result has been lots of weak contact and easy outs.

Over/Under pick

These are two scorching offenses — nine of the last 11 games involving Boston have cleared this total — but I’m expecting a lower-scoring affair on Wednesday afternoon. A day game after a night game could mean several key lineup absences, while Houck can neutralize some of Baltimore’s dangerous righties like Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle and Wells has been effective in avoiding hard contact.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

In a relative toss-up, I’ll go with the team whose bullpen I trust most, and that’s clearly Baltimore — especially with the emergence of Yennier Cano in front of Felix Bautista. The O’s will get the win on getaway day.

Pick: Orioles