6:05 p.m. ET update: Bucks center Giannis Antetokounmpo has been ruled out for tonight’s Game 3 matchup against the Miami Heat. The line at DraftKings Sportsbook has moved down to Milwaukee -2.5, with the total set at 218. We will still stick with the Bucks covering the spread as a road favorite and also stick with our prediction of the over cashing.
The first round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs keeps rolling along on Saturday as the Miami Heat host the Milwaukee Bucks for Game 3 of their series. The contest will tip at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Bucks blasted the Heat in a 138-122 victory on Wednesday to tie the series at 1-1.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is still dealing with a lower back contusion and is listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup. He suffered the injury in the first quarter of Game 1 on Sunday and missed Game 2 in Milwaukee. For Miami, Tyler Herro underwent surgery on his broken hand on Friday and is out for the rest of the series. Kyle Lowry is once again questionable with knee soreness, but expected to play.
Milwaukee is listed as a 5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is installed at 220. The Bucks are -200 on the moneyline while the Heat are +170.
Bucks vs. Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Bucks -5
Milwaukee’s struggles in Game 1 can be attributed to the team shooting poorly from the field in the first quarter and having to play from behind the rest of the way. Even without Antetokounmpo on the floor in Game 2, the Bucks were able to have a faster start out the gate and blow the Heat off the floor. Milwaukee had the best road record in the league this season and is facing a Miami team that had a poor 15-26-2 ATS mark at home. With the two-time MVP possibly suiting up for tonight, I’d take the Bucks to cover and go up 2-1 in the series.
Over/Under: Over 220
Both teams are shooting over 50% from the field for the series and have no problem blowing past the 220-point threshold. Take the over for Game 3, even if Antetokounmpo ends up sitting another game for Milwaukee.