Update: Jokic has been ruled out for Denver, but everyone else is in. The line has completely flipped with this injury news, with the Warriors now being listed as 3.5-point favorites. We’ll gladly take the points with the Nuggets, so our ATS pick is now Denver +3.5. The total is 231.5, and we’ll still take the over even with Jokic out.
The Golden State Warriors (41-37) meet the Denver Nuggets (51-26) Sunday evening in a rematch of last year’s first-round playoff series. The Warriors are looking to find their championship mojo heading into the playoffs, while the Nuggets look to maintain their status as the top team in the Western Conference.
The Warriors are intact on the injury front. Nikola Jokic is questionable for the Nuggets as has missed the last two games. Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are all probable.
The Nuggets are 2.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is 233.5. Denver is -140 on the moneyline while Golden State is +120.
Warriors vs. Nuggets, 8:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Nuggets -2.5
Even if Jokic doesn’t suit up, the Nuggets are a juggernaut at home. Denver is 23-15-1 ATS as the home team this season. However, this is really about Golden State’s abysmal road record. The Warriors are 9-29 away from San Francisco this year, and don’t really play much defense away from home. The Nuggets have won both games between the teams this season and covered this spread both times. They should make in three in a row against Golden State Sunday.
Over/Under: Over 233.5
Both previous meetings have gone well over this total, and Golden State remains the worst defensive team in the league on the road by almost every metric. The Warriors are surrendering 124.1 points per game to opponents on the road, which ranks 29th in the league. Even if Jokic is not available, the Nuggets have enough offensive stars to take advantage of Golden State’s struggles. Back the over to hit here, regardless of Jokic’s status.