The San Diego Padres and New York Mets will close out their three-game series on Wednesday afternoon from Citi Field in Queens, New York. Following a shutout loss, San Diego evened the series with a 4-2 win last night. First pitch for the rubber match is set for 1:10 p.m. ET today, with Blake Snell (0-1, 7.88 ERA) going for the Padres against Mets starter Tylor Megill (2-0, 1.64 ERA).
The Mets are currently -120 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Padres are +100 underdogs. The run total is set at 8.5.
Padres-Mets picks: Wednesday, April 12th
San Diego Padres
Day to day: RP Jose Castillo (shoulder)
Out: RP Robert Suarez (elbow), SP Joe Musgrove (toe), RF David Dahl (quadriceps), RP Drew Pomeranz (elbow), CF Adam Engel (hamstring), RP Adrian Morejon (elbow), 3B Eguy Rosario (ankle)
New York Mets
Out: SP Jose Quintana (ribs), C Omar Narvaez (calf), SP Justin Verlander (shoulder), RP Tommy Hunter (back), RP Edwin Diaz (knee)
Blake Snell vs. Tylor Megill
Snell has gotten off to a rocky start through two outings, giving up seven earned runs over eight innings of work in losses to the Atlanta Braves and Colorado Rockies. The former Cy Young winner is coming off a full season where he had a 3.38 ERA, so odds are he’ll start to figure things out soon.
Megill couldn’t be throwing much better through two starts — both against the Miami Marlins — allowing just two runs over 11 innings including a six-inning shutout in his last outing. Starting his third MLB season, Megill has a career 4.50 ERA through 35 appearances and 29 starts.
Less than two weeks into the MLB season, only four teams hit the under more than they hit the over, so the new rule changes are clearly making a difference for offenses to this point. Oddsmakers understand this, and that’s part of the reason the under will cash on Wednesday afternoon. Both teams are in the bottom half in OPS, and the Mets are really struggling at the plate. New York is in the bottom five in runs per game, batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.
Pick: Under 8.5
Both pitchers are going in opposite directions in terms of what their career numbers say, but it’s likely that will even out at some point. Snell isn’t throwing his best right away while Megill is, but let’s go against the trend and side with career numbers with larger sample sizes. Snell is by far the more proven pitcher in this spot, and I’ll side with him.