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Picks, predictions for HR leader market in 2023 MLB season

We go over our top picks to lead the League in homers in the 2023 season.

Los Angeles Angels v Oakland Athletics Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

There’s nothing like the excitement of a good home run race. Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees took the suspense out of that equation last year, but he’ll face significant competition to repeat as the HR leader in 2023.

Below, we’ll break down the odds for top players to lead the league in home runs. We’ll also touch on a few sleeper picks to potentially claim the top spot.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

2023 MLB odds: HR leader


Aaron Judge (+550) is at the top of the table, and that shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. The reigning NL home run leader, Kyle Schwarber (+950) is next in line. Mike Trout (+1000), Pete Alonso (+1100), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1100) round out the top five.

While those odds make sense, let’s not overlook Guerrero, who shared the title of HR leader with 48 homers in 2021. It’s also worth noting that Trout finished with 40 round-trippers despite only playing in 119 games last season.


Austin Riley (+2000) of the Atlanta Braves finished fifth last season with 38 homers. At 25, there’s reason to believe the third baseman can go beyond that in his third full year in the majors.

Byron Buxton (+6000) has morphed into a legitimate power hitter over the last few seasons. However, he can’t seem to stay healthy. Buxton has hit 47 homers in 153 total games over the last two seasons. The Minnesota Twins plan on using him more as a designated hitter this year, which could preserve him to some degree. If he plays 140+ games, Buxton could make a real run atop the HR leaderboard.