MLB Opening Day is here, and the Seattle Mariners will host the Cleveland Guardians to begin the season. The first pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 30.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Mariners check in as marginal -120 home favorites. The over/under is listed at 6.5 total runs.
Guardians-Mariners picks: Thursday, March 30
Out: SP Triston McKenzie, SP Cody Morris
Questionable: SS J.P. Crawford
Out: RF Taylor Trammell, RF Dylan Moore, RP Casey Sadler
Shane Bieber came through with another strong season for Cleveland last year, holding a 2.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 198 strikeouts in 200 innings. He only pitched once against Seattle in the 2022 campaign, allowing five hits and one earned run with nine strikeouts across seven innings.
Luis Castillo was traded to the Mariners in the middle of last season, and he did not disappoint. Castillo finished with a career-best 2.99 ERA overall. He faced the Guardians twice, combining for 14 strikeouts, nine hits, and one earned run across 12 innings. Castillo won one of those games and received a no-decision in the other.
Despite Castillo’s success against the Guardians last season, Cleveland has several hitters with solid splits against him. That includes Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario, and Steven Kwan. The over/under is low, and we could see more runs than expected come across. Both offenses are underrated, and the Guardians could be the main driver pushing this one over the total.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-110)
Even though they are on the road, it feels like the Guardians have the advantage here. The starting pitching is close, but Cleveland’s hitters have better splits off Castillo. You could argue the Guardians have the bullpen advantage too, ranking third overall in bullpen WAR heading into the season. Cleveland seems like the pick here, and it helps that we are getting them for plus-money odds.
Pick: Guardians (+100)