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History of 7 vs. 10 seeds in the NCAA Tournament

We go over how often the 10-seed has upset the 7-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Missouri Tigers forward Noah Carter (35) backs down on Alabama Crimson Tide forward Noah Gurley (4) during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout the history of the NCAA Tournament, the 7 vs. 10 seed matchup has consistently delivered excitement in the first round. Despite the difference in seeding, these teams are often closely matched and anything can happen in this games. Below, we’ll delve into the past of the 7 vs. 10 seed matchup while seeing how often the 10 seed advances to the second round.

History of 7 vs. 10 seed matchup in NCAA Tournament

Even though this matchup features a pair of teams close in seeding, the 7-seed has historically dominated this series. Since 1985, the 10 seed has won only 39.6 percent of the matchups against a 7 seed.

That has held true in recent NCAA Tournaments as well. Since 2010, the 10-seed is 18-26 in the first round. That’s a 40.9 win rate that’s on par with the average over the last 25+ years. That’s a much smaller win rate than most would expect given the relatively slim difference in seeding.

2023 7 vs. 10 matchups

West: No. 7 Northwestern vs. No. 10 Boise State
South: No. 7 Missouri vs. No. 10 Utah State
East: No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 USC
Midwest: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Penn State

It is a bad year to be a 7-seed at DraftKings Sportsbook. Each of the four teams is the underdog in their matchup with a lower seed. Penn State has the best odds and is a 3-point favorite over Texas A&M.