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Bracketology 2023: Who’s in and who’s out according to experts as of February 2

We take a look at the NCAA Tournament from a brackets perspective if Selection Sunday was today.

Kansas State v Kansas Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images

The 2022-23 men’s college basketball season continues to move along and we’ve finally reached the pivotal month of February on the calendar. We’re entering crunch time across the board in conference play and it’s never too early to start speculating who will land where for the NCAA Tournament in March.

Analysts are regularly updating their projected field of 68 and going over where the top programs will end up come tourney time in mid-March. Today, we’ll take a look at the latest brackets of ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, CBS’ Jerry Palm, Blogging the Bracket’s Chris Dobbertean, and the Washington Post’s Patrick Stevens to see what they are projecting at this current juncture of the season.

No. 1 seeds

There is still a consensus across the board that Purdue and Alabama will be No. 1 seeds if the season ended today, even after the Crimson Tide were embarrassed on the road at Oklahoma last weekend. However, the other two top seeds are up for debate.

There’s still a near consensus of Houston being the third one-seed and it is still backed up by the Cougars being ranked No. 1 in both KenPom and NET rankings. Arizona, Kansas, Kansas State, and Tennessee are the other teams receiving consideration in this category as they’ve all had strong starts in conference play but have stumbled a few times.

Keep your eyes peeled for Texas and UCLA as teams that could play themselves into No. 1 seed status in the coming weeks. Both sit atop their respective conferences at the moment.

Last Four In

When it comes to current bubble teams, the experts have Nevada, Pittsburgh, Penn State, and West Virginia are being touted as some the last teams to sneak into the field of 68 if the season were to end today. WVU is considered a top 25 team in advanced metrics like NET and KenPom but had a brutal start in Big 12 play. Recent victories over TCU and Auburn have boosted the Mountaineers back into tournament consideration and they will need a few more big wins in conference to stay afloat.

Pitt currently sits in third place in the ACC standings and may soon be off the bubble as long as it keeps winning. Its Keystone State counterpart in Penn State is fighting through a crowded Big Ten field and could help its own case by stringing together a winning streak or two throughout the month of February. Nevada, meanwhile, is holding its own in a strong mid-major league in the Mountain West and will need to continue to rack up impressive victories during the last month of the regular season.

First Four Out

Arizona State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Wisconsin are among the teams that would be left out in the cold if the season ended today according to the experts. ASU has found itself on the wrong side of the bubble with a four-game losing streak, getting swept by both Los Angeles teams and both Washington teams in the last two weeks.

Both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have struggled through the tough Big 12 and will need to start compiling more wins before they lose the benefit of the doubt with their strength of schedule. The same goes for Wisconsin, which has lost six of its last seven.

Key games this weekend

Thursday, February 2

No. 19 FAU at UAB, 7 p.m. ET, CBSSN
Wisconsin at Ohio State, 7 p.m. ET, FS1

Friday, February 3

Boise State at No. 22 San Diego State, 9 p.m. ET, FS1

Saturday, February 4

No. 8 Kansas at No. 13 Iowa State, noon ET, ESPN
No. 6 Virginia at Virginia Tech, noon ET, ESPN2
No. 25 Auburn at No. 2 Tennessee, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN
No. 23 Miami at No. 20 Clemson, 3 p.m. ET, ACC Network
No. 1 Purdue at No. 21 Indiana, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Kansas State, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN2
North Carolina at Duke, 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Oklahoma at West Virginia, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Florida at Kentucky, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Oregon at Arizona State, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN2
No. 12 Gonzaga at No. 18 Saint Mary’s, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Saturday, February 5

Ohio State at Michigan, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
No. 3 Houston at Temple, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Northwestern at Wisconsin, 6:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network

Projected bids per conference

ACC - 8 (Palm), 7 (Dobbertean, Lunardi), 6 (Stevens)
Big East - 5 (Dobbertean, Lunardi, Palm, Stevens)
Big Ten - 9 (Dobbertean, Lunardi, Stevens), 8 (Palm)
Big 12 - 8 (Dobbertean), 7 (Lunardi, Palm, Stevens)
Pac-12 - 3 (Dobbertean, Lunardi, Palm, Stevens)
SEC - 7 (Stevens), 6 (Dobbertean, Lunardi, Palm)
AAC - 2 (Lunardi, Palm, Stevens), 1 (Dobbertean)
MWC - 4 (Dobbertan, Palm, Stevens), 3 (Lunardi)
WCC - 2 (Dobbertean, Lunardi, Palm, Stevens)