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Picks, predictions for San Francisco vs. Saint Mary’s on Thursday, February 2

The Gaels return home as double-digit favorites against San Francisco on Thursday night.

NCAA Basketball: Battleground 2K22-St. Mary’s at Houston Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

The No. 18 Saint Mary’s Gaels will host the San Francisco Dons on Thursday night from University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga, California. The game will tip off at 11:00 p.m. ET and air on ESPNU.

Let’s take a look at the odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook and make some picks.

San Francisco vs. Saint Mary’s odds

Spread: Saint Mary’s -12
Over/Under: 130
Moneyline: SMC -750, USF +550

San Francisco (15-9, 4-5 WCC) brings a three-game winning streak into February coming off a 94-81 road win over the San Diego Toreros as Khalil Shabazz went off for 26 points. The Dons rate 96th overall in KenPom, and they rate similarly in adjusted efficiency on both ends of the floor, though their strength comes on offense.

Saint Mary’s (8-0, 19-4 WCC) won its 10th consecutive game over the weekend when the Gaels grinded out a 57-56 road win over the BYU Cougars with five players scoring at least 10 points including Mitchell Saxen, who had a double-double with 11 points and 10 rebounds. KenPom numbers love the Gaels, which rate seventh nationally with a top-five defense in adjusted efficiency.

The Pick: Under 131.5

Saint Mary’s didn’t shoot terribly against BYU including 42.9% from 3-point range and still scored only 57 points. The Gaels play at the fifth-slowest pace in adjusted tempo with one of the best defenses in the country, and they haven’t allowed 70 points since the first game of the season. The under hit in Saint Mary’s’ last four home games against a team with a winning record, and that streak will continue on Thursday night.