Update: Murray and Gordon have both been ruled out for the Nuggets, while Herro is out for the Heat. Everyone else is in. The Nuggets are 1-point underdogs just like they were earlier today, and we’ll maintain our ATS pick with Denver. The total is down to 217.5, and we’ll maintain our pick on the under.
The Denver Nuggets (39-18) will travel to take on the Miami Heat (32-25) tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from FTX Arena in Miami. This is the second and final time these two teams will face off this season. The Nuggets got the win 124-119 when these teams faced off in Denver back in December.
The Heat are dealing with a ton of injuries. Of their starters, Gabe Vincent, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo are questionable. The Heat will also be without Kyle Lowry and Victor Oladipo. For the Nuggets, Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray are questionable. Gordon is dealign with a rib injury and Murray is still fully recovering from the knee injury.
The Heat sit as 1-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook and the point total sits at 220.5. On the moneyline, the Heat are -110 while the Nuggets are -110 as well.
Nuggets vs. Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Nuggets +1
The Heat are banged up and are struggling with depth. With Nikola Jokic healthy, I don't see how the Heat will stop him. Adebayo will have struggles especially as he is dealing with a leg injury. If Gordon and Murray both play, this spread will probably change in favor of the Nuggets.
Denver is 30-26-1 this season against the spread this season which ranks ninth in the NBA, while the Heat are 21-33-3 which is the second worst in the NBA. The Heat have underperformed all year and will have a tough time stopping Jokic tonight. Back the Nuggets to cover and likely win outright.
Over/Under: Under 220.5
Both teams have been decent on defense this season. Unders are 29-28 in Denver games and 32-25 in Miami games. With the All-Star break coming up, we’re seeing some better players sit out and that limit the scoring more than usual. I think both teams finish in the high 90’s and low 100’s, causing the under to hit.