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What are the odds Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow on Groundhog Day? What happened last year?

We discuss the odds of Punxsutawney Phil seeing his shadow and what it could mean for the length of this year’s winter.

Groundhog handler AJ Derume holds Punxsutawney Phil, who saw his shadow, predicting a late spring during the 136th annual Groundhog Day festivities on February 2, 2022 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Groundhog Day is a popular tradition in the United States and Canada. A crowd of upwards of 5000 people spent a night of revelry awaiting the sunrise and the groundhog’s exit from his winter den. Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images

UPDATE: Phil saw his shadow and so we are in for six more weeks of winter. You can watch the full production here.

One day per year, the most famous being in the state of Pennsylvania is a groundhog. On Groundhog Day, which is on Thursday, February 2 this year, Punxsutawney Phil will be tasked with trying to see his shadow to depict what kind of winter we can expect to have for the coming months. If he sees his shadow and returns to his hole, Phil has predicted another six weeks of winter. If Phil doesn’t see his shadow, that means that he is predicting an early spring.

Odds Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow this year

DraftKings Sportsbook lead oddsmaker Johnny Avello provided some odds for entertainment purposes. He gives Phil -220 odds to see his shadow, sending us to six more weeks of winter. An early spring is the underdog pick installed at +190.

In putting together the line, Avello noted that there have been 123 predictions since 1900, and Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow a whopping 104 times. These numbers are a little front-loaded, though, and the shadowing prop bet hitting hasn’t been as successful since 1990. Phil has only seen his shadow 70% of the time in the last 32 years compared to an 80% clip in the 90 years prior. A shadow has been seen twice in the last four years. This information, plus the Farmers Almanac predicting a longer winter, makes it logical we get short odds on Phil seeing his shadow.

Did Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow last year?

Phil is coming off back-to-back years of seeing his shadow. While you may be tempted to bet the favorite among friends, keep in mind that Phil hasn’t seen his shadow three years in a row since a three-year streak from 2008-2010. Phil’s longest shadow streak reportedly spanned 30 years from 1903-1933, but it is a long shot that we are at the beginning of another shadow dynasty.